| 时殷弘.拜登政府对华态势考察：非战略军事阵线[J].国际安全研究,2021,(6):3-27 |
| 拜登政府对华态势考察：非战略军事阵线 |
| The Biden Administration’s Posture toward China: Behaviors beyond Strategic Military Front |
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| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2021.06.001 |
| 中文关键词: 拜登政府 中美关系 对华贸易政策 高技术脱钩 意识形态竞争 盟友外交 |
| 英文关键词: the Biden administration, China-US relations, trade policy toward China, high-tech decoupling, ideological rivalry, diplomacy with allies |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 拜登政府执政八个月，在战略军事领域不断强化和升级对中国的戒备、威胁、围堵和反推。在战略军事阵线之外，拜登政府的对华态势和行为更加凸显竞争和对抗。它在贸易领域持续挑起涉华贸易争端和发动主要针对中国的供应链重组；在高新技术领域全面施行高技术“脱钩”和遏止；在外交领域推进旨在围堵和孤立中国的涉华盟友外交。在中美合作方面，可能的具体合作必然甚为有限，并且与两国间在世界威望、全球治理领导地位、意识形态影响和经济/技术方面的竞争复杂交织。拜登总统将中美之间愈发激烈的竞斗当成更广泛的全球意识形态竞斗，怀着一项自命的使命(“拜登主义”)，即面对所谓“专制主义的威胁”和21世纪的其他挑战，要证明民主依然管用。拜登政府对华政策总纲正在浮现：中国是美国短期、中期和长期的近乎全面的“敌对威胁”和竞争对手，美国的相关目标不仅是对华竞而胜之，而且是对华完胜。中国既要不低估拜登政府的能力和已取得的效果，也要密切注意其客观困难和主观表现的上下波动，因而须对拜登治下的美国的综合实力和多方潜能进行经久的开放性观察。量力而行、量利而行、注重成本、提防风险应当是起码的和迫在眉睫的基本方针，以此为前提才可正确谋划长远的未来方向。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since taking power eight months ago, the Biden administration has been constantly strengthening and upgrading its vigilance, containment and rollback against China on the strategic military front. Beyond that, its posture and behavior toward China have been highlighted by fierce competition and confrontation. It continues the trade war with China and launches a campaign of reshuffling global supply chains targeting mainly at China. In the high-tech area, an across-the-board policy of containment and decoupling has been implemented by the Biden administration that pursues alignment diplomacy with its allies and partners to isolate and siege China in the diplomatic realm. As regards China-US cooperation, little room has been left for any significant concrete cooperation programs that are intricately intertwined with US-China competition over world prestige, leadership in global governance, ideological clout and economic/technological development. Taking the increasingly intense competition between China and the United States as a wide-ranging global ideological battle, President Biden who identifies himself as the man shouldering a great mission (Bidenism) intends to show that democracy still works in the face of threats from authoritarianism, and other major challenges of the 21st century. Along with this came a general guideline for the Biden administration’s China policy: China is America’s number one adversary who poses serious threats to its interests on all fronts not only in the short term, but also in the medium term and even in the very long term. Relevant goals to be attained by the United States aim at not only outcompeting China but also triumphing over China. China needs to pay close attention to the difficulties faced by the Biden administration and its changing performances, while properly understanding the capabilities as well as achievements made by it. Therefore, it is necessary for the Chinese government to make continuous observations about the comprehensive strengths and potentials of the Biden administration and take into full consideration all the contributing factors including capabilities, gains and losses, costs and risks. Only by adhering to this basic policy can China correctly plan for its future development in the right direction. |
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