文章摘要
左希迎.美国对华常规威慑战略的调整[J].国际安全研究,2022,(5):53-80
美国对华常规威慑战略的调整
Adjustments to U.S. Conventional Deterrence Strategy toward China
  修订日期:2022-06-22
DOI:10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2022.05.003
中文关键词: 中美关系;拒止性威慑;常规力量;战略竞争;台湾问题
英文关键词: Sino-US relations, deterrence by denial, conventional forces, strategic competition, Taiwan Question
基金项目:
作者单位
左希迎 中国人民大学国际关系学院 北京 100872 
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中文摘要:
      美国战略界认为,中国过去二十多年的军事现代化极大地侵蚀了美国在全球军事上的绝对主导地位,并导致美国对华常规威慑的可信度受到挑战。随着中国常规威慑能力上升,美国战略界鼓吹调整对华常规威慑的理念和战略,提出了“一体化威慑”概念,重视对中国施加拒止性威慑,使中国相信不会在军事行动中实现目标,以达到威慑中国的意图。在大国战略竞争的背景下,美国试图从加强国防科技建设、提升拒止性威慑能力和巩固亚太盟友关系三个方面着手,强化对中国的威慑效用。中美常规威慑能力的此消彼长和常规威慑战略的攻守态势转换,深刻影响着两国战略竞争的形态,也对世界和地区的安全秩序产生了重大影响。中美常规威慑能力的变化,不仅推动美国统筹考虑核力量和常规力量,也推动着中国重新思考核力量和常规力量的关系,并迫使美国调整军控政策,对全球军控体系产生了长远影响。
英文摘要:
      The U.S. strategic community believes that China’s military modernization over the past two decades has greatly eroded the absolute military predominance of the United States in the West Pacific and therefore undermined the credibility of U.S. conventional deterrence against China. With the rise of China’s conventional deterrence capability, the U.S. strategic community has been advocating making fundamental changes to the conceptions and strategies of conventional deterrence against China by putting forward the concept of “integrated deterrence” and conducting deterrence by denial that aims to make China believe that no goals could be achieved in its military operations. Faced with strategic competition among major powers, the United States is trying to reinforce the deterrence effectiveness against China by strengthening its defense science and technology, enhancing its capability of deterrence by denial and consolidating its alliance system in the Asia-Pacific. Changes in the conventional deterrence capabilities of the U.S. and China have profoundly affected the strategic competition between the two countries as well as the world and regional security order. Such changes not only prompt the United States to consider and plan as a whole its nuclear and conventional forces, but also push China to rethink the relationship between its nuclear and conventional forces, which gives the United States an excuse to adjust its arms control policy, thus exerting a long-term impact on the global arms control regime.
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