| 张耀,宋亦明.霸权护持的制度路径：美国亚太安全制度方略的变迁逻辑[J].国际安全研究,2025,(3):35-62 |
| 霸权护持的制度路径：美国亚太安全制度方略的变迁逻辑 |
| The Institutional Path of Hegemonic Maintenance: The Evolutionary Logic of U.S. Security Institutional Statecraft in the Asia-Pacific |
| 投稿时间：2025-02-04 修订日期：2025-03-31 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2025.03.002 |
| 中文关键词: 联盟转型 安全制度方略 盟伴体系 小多边主义 武器化 |
| 英文关键词: alliance transformation, security institutional statecraft, network of allies and partners, minilateralism, weaponization |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 冷战结束以来，国际安全制度日益成为美国维护全球霸权与自由主义秩序的重要战略工具。在亚太地区，美国对安全制度的运用呈现出由包容性向排他性、由工具化向武器化的变迁趋势。为解释其制度行为的阶段性特征与差异化选择，有必要引入“安全制度方略”作为分析性概念。安全制度方略承载着合法性塑造与资源整合的功能，体现了美国如何在不同战略阶段协调盟伴关系并应对体系性挑战。其中，威胁认知主导了美国在包容性与排他性安全制度方略之间的基本选择；体系压力则影响排他性安全制度的演进形态，即：是侧重实用主义的工具化，还是升级为以遏制竞争对手为目标的武器化路径；美国党派偏好与盟伴威胁认同则在制度扩展的类型与范围上发挥调节效应。对此，特朗普政府在第二任期内会更加有选择性地推进安全制度的武器化。然而，安全承诺可信度的下降会促使盟伴之间的横向联系加强，反过来助推了“盟伴网络”的形塑。这种排他性制度架构不仅难以有效化解地区纷争，而且会阻碍包容、稳定的亚太安全秩序的构建。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since the end of the Cold War, international security institutions have become critical tools for the United States to maintain its global hegemony and shape regional order. In the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. approach to security institutions has shown a trend of shift from inclusivity to exclusivity and from functional cooperation to strategic weaponization. To explain this evolution, the analytical concept of “security institutional statecraft” is introduced in this article, highlighting how the U.S. balances legitimacy-building and resource integration while coordinating its relations with allies and partners and responding to systemic challenges at different strategic stages. Threat perception determines the basic choice between inclusive and exclusive approaches by the U.S. Systemic challenges influence the evolutionary path of exclusive institutions—either it focuses on a functional, issue-based path of instrumentalization, or shifts toward a confrontational, rival-targeted trajectory of weaponization. Party preferences and threat consensus among U.S. allies and partners act as moderating factors that shape the scope and form of institutional expansion. In this context, a second Trump administration is expected to adopt a more selective approach to advancing institutional weaponization. However, the declining credibility of alliance commitments may lead to stronger horizontal cooperation among U.S. allies and partners, inadvertently accelerating the formation of a network of alliances and partners. This exclusive architecture, while serving U.S. hegemonic interests, will undermine the efforts to build a stable and inclusive regional security order. |
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