| 张禹恒.战略风险预期、行动资源禀赋与美国对外技术遏制策略[J].国际安全研究,2025,(6):125-151 |
| 战略风险预期、行动资源禀赋与美国对外技术遏制策略 |
| Strategic Risk Perception, Action Resource Endowment, and U.S. Technology Containment Strategies |
| 投稿时间：2025-07-06 修订日期：2025-09-03 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2025.06.006 |
| 中文关键词: 美国对外技术遏制 技术遏制策略 战略风险 行动资源 技术霸权 |
| 英文关键词: U.S. technology containment, technology containment strategy, strategic risk, action resources, technological hegemony |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 美国在关键和新兴技术领域的对外技术遏制，是当今世界技术权力格局变化中的重要现象，而遏制策略的选择则能够反映其维系技术优势地位的行为逻辑。不同的对外技术遏制策略难以用单一视角充分解释，其中的深层原因需要进一步深究。在战略风险预期—行动资源禀赋的分析框架下，可有效分析美国对外技术遏制策略的差异化选择。战略风险预期可通过技术代际差距紧迫性、体系挑战意图、技术安全化程度来判断，行动资源禀赋则通过技术控制能力、制度工具可用性、国内政治支持力度来体现。两个核心变量的程度高低组合，可将美国对外技术遏制策略划分为柔性渗透、框架重构、有限裹挟、全局压制四种类型。通过分析美国在数字技术领域对印度、欧盟的遏制，在芯片技术领域对沙特、中国的遏制，能够揭示变量组合与策略选择的对应关系。美国差异化的对外技术遏制策略本质上是风险—资源评估权衡下的产物，虽能对被遏制的目标国起到短期约束作用，但无法长期限制其追求技术自主的意愿。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The United States’ strategic containment of critical and emerging technologies has become a defining phenomenon amid the ongoing transformation of the global technological power structure. The selection of containment strategies reflects the behavioral logic driving its pursuit of sustained technological dominance. A single analytical lens is insufficient to capture the diversity of external containment approaches, and the underlying drivers demand more nuanced investigation. Within the analytical framework of strategic risk perception and action resource endowment, the divergent choices of U.S. technology containment strategies can be effectively examined. Strategic risk perception can be assessed through the urgency of generational technological gaps, the perceived intent of systemic challenges, and the extent to which technology is securitized. Action resource endowment is manifested in technological control capacity, the availability of institutional instruments, and the depth of domestic political support. Differentiated combinations of these two core variables generate four distinct types of U.S. containment strategies: flexible penetration, framework reconstruction, limited entanglement, and comprehensive suppression. Case studies examining U.S. containment directed at India and the European Union in the field of digital technologies, as well as Saudi Arabia and China in the field of semiconductors, highlight the alignment between variable configurations and strategic responses. Essentially, the United States’ differentiated containment strategies are direct products of a fundamental trade-off between strategic risk perception and action resource endowment. While these strategies may impose short-term constraints on targeted countries, they ultimately fall short of curbing those countries’ long-term pursuit of technological autonomy. |
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