| 卢凌宇.公共物品供给与国内冲突的复发[J].国际安全研究,2018,(4):33-63 |
| 公共物品供给与国内冲突的复发 |
| Public Goods Provision and Civil Conflict Recurrence |
| 修订日期：2018-04-23 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.04.002 |
| 中文关键词: 公共物品供给 国内冲突 冲突复发 冲突陷阱 |
| 英文关键词: public goods provision, civil conflicts, conflict recurrence, conflict traps |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据新制度经济学理论，不同类型的公共物品供给是国家对国民接受现存政治秩序和纳税的回报。长期的政治和社会经济物品供给不妥或不足会导致国民的“怨恨”，破坏统治合法性，从而为反政府武装组织的动员和招募打开机会窗口，激发国内冲突。怨恨不会随着战争的结束而自动消失。对于普通士兵而言，怨恨是否会平息或化解取决于公共物品供给的变化。无论是原统治集团继续掌权，还是反叛集团取而代之，改善公共物品供给都是无法回避的问题，也是决定内战是否死灰复燃的关键因素。基于1947-2008年“武装冲突数据库”的“生存分析”支持了本文的基本假设，那就是公共物品供给显著地降低国内冲突复发的风险。经验研究还发现，战后和平建设主要是一个国内政治过程。国际战争、经济相互依存等国际因素会产生局部的显著影响，但作用并不大。国内政治物品的供给，尤其是政治参与和政治竞争对于冲突复发的遏制作用远比其他类型物品强。相对于经济物品，社会福利物品能够产生及时的作用，和平效果明显。此外，族群冲突的复发受制于更多类型的国内公共物品供给，因此较之非族群冲突，实现持久和平的机会更多，相对更容易化解。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| According to Neo-Instituional Economics, different types of public goods are provided to the citizenry as a reward for their compliance with the existing political order as well as their due tax-paying. Long-term improper or insufficient provision of political and socio-economic goods is supposed to incur “resentment” among citizens, undermine the legitimacy of the political order, open a window of opportunity for mobilization and recruitment of the masses by armed anti-government groups, and eventually give rise to civil conflicts. Grievances, however, do not vanish automatically with the termination of a war. Whether the grievances of ordinary war participants can be addressed or not depends on the changes in the provision of public goods. Either ruling groups or rebel forces need to improve the provision of public goods as a means to success. It is also a key factor that determines whether the civil conflict will resurge. The “survival analysis” based on the Armed Conflict Database (1947-2008) lends support to the main hypothesis of this essay that public goods provision significantly reduces the risk of civil conflict recurrence. The empirical research also demonstrates that peace building is mainly a domestic political process, in which the impacts of international wars and economic interdependence are mild although significant. The provision of domestic political goods, particularly political participation and competition, plays a far greater role in preventing the recurrence of conflicts than that of other types of public goods. Compared to economic goods, social welfare goods generate timely and more pronounced effects that are conducive to peace. In addition, the recurrence of ethnic conflicts is empirically subject to more types of public goods provision than that of non-ethnic ones. As a result, ethnic conflicts are relatively more easily resolved and stand a good chance of achieving lasting peace. |
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