文章摘要
蔡翠红,戴丽婷.人工智能影响复合战略稳定的作用路径:基于模型的考察[J].国际安全研究,2022,(3):79-108
人工智能影响复合战略稳定的作用路径:基于模型的考察
The Impact Path of Artificial Intelligence on Shaping the Composite Strategic Stability: A Model-Based Examination
  修订日期:2022-02-20
DOI:10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2022.03.004
中文关键词: 人工智能  战略稳定  复合战略稳定  人工智能治理
英文关键词: artificial intelligence, strategic stability, composite strategic stability, artificial intelligence governance
基金项目:
作者单位
蔡翠红 复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院 上海 200433 
戴丽婷 复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院 上海 200433 
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中文摘要:
      技术进步与时代变迁促使战略稳定的体系框架发生了重大变化。战略稳定理论的研究视角也经历了从核战略稳定、军事战略稳定到复合战略稳定的转变。一个新时期的复合战略稳定模型为探求上述理论与现实之间的互动提供了支撑,即通过战略能力、战略行为和战略意愿等三大链条,分析复合战略稳定的要素构成与互动关系,并且选取最有代表性的颠覆性技术——人工智能作为案例,分析其在复合战略稳定模型中的作用路径。人工智能的优势在于能够打破国家战略能力、战略行为和战略意愿三者的间隔,通过对战略能力的全面渗透效应、对战略意愿的双向引导效应、对战略行为的动态介入效应,从正负两个方面影响复合战略稳定。但是,人工智能对战略稳定的影响在多数情况下是负面的。这一发现,对于更好地认识人工智能对战略稳定的影响,以及维护战略稳定和提升人工智能治理能力,都具有重要的启示意义。
英文摘要:
      With the advancement of technology and time, the framework of strategic stability has produced significant changes. Viewed from the developmental lineage, the research perspective of strategic stability theory has undergone a transformation from nuclear strategic stability and military strategic stability to composite strategic stability. A new-era model of composite strategic stability can help establish a platform for discussing relations between theories and facts. This paper, by virtue of such three major chains as strategic capabilities, strategic behaviors and strategic intentions, intends to analyze the composition and interaction of key elements of composite strategic stability, and select artificial intelligence which is the most representative disruptive technology in today’s world as a case study to analyze the path of its impact on the composite strategic stability model. The significance of artificial intelligence lies in its potential to break the interval between national strategic capabilities, strategic behaviors and strategic intentions, and affect composite strategic stability both positively and negatively via the all-round penetration effects on strategic capabilities, the two-way guidance effects on strategic intentions, and the dynamic intervention effects on strategic behaviors. However, the impacts of AI on strategic stability are negative in most cases. These findings have important practical implications for a better understanding of the impacts of AI on strategic stability as well as for maintaining strategic stability and upgrading AI governance capabilities.
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