| LU Lingyu.[J].国际安全研究(英文版),2016,2(1):13-44 |
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| State Capacity and Recurring Civil Conflicts |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: |
| 英文关键词: state capacity extractive capacity civil conflicts recurrence |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
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| 英文摘要: |
| The impacts of extractive capacity upon recurring civil conflicts are non-
linear and conditional. This relationship is determined by three mechanisms that
run in opposite directions. In the long run, stronger state capacity is expected to
make military rebellion more difficult and expensive. In the short run, however, the
effort to strengthen extractive capacity will increase taxpayers’ financial stress, thus
engendering their grievance against the government and sympathy towards rebels.
In the meantime, a government that attempts to raise more tax money will make its
peace commitment less credible and endanger the fragile peace in the post-conflict
period. Based upon the regression analysis of 138 civil conflicts in 70 countries from
1960 to 2007, this paper finds that how state capacity influences relapse to civil wars
is essentially a domestic process. Specifically speaking, where there was a decisive
victory in the previous episode of a conflict, increase in state capacity significantly
makes the conflict less likely to recur. Nonetheless, the relationship is not significantly
shaped by peace keeping operations. Furthermore, natural resources and foreign aid
fail to significantly assist capable states in creating a more durable peace. Conversely,
the two factors repress the independent influences of state capacity upon the
recurrence of civil conflicts. |
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