| H a r a l d M ü l l e r a n d C a r s t e n R a u c h.[J].国际安全研究(英文版),2016,2(2): |
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| Managing Power Transitions: Towards a 21stCentury Concert of Powers |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: |
| 英文关键词: power transition, power shift, concert of powers, multilateralism, world
order, international order, international institutions |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
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| 英文摘要: |
| Power shifts and especially power transitions in the international system are
often associated with (military) confl ict. Power Transition Theory (PTT) does offer an
analysis of this phenomenon but no remedy. We suggest easing the tensions related to
ongoing worldwide power shifts by introducing a new informal multilateral security
governance institution, based on the idea of a concert of powers. The historical European
Concert of the 19th century prevented the outbreak of great power wars for more than a
generation by providing a cooperation framework, based on shared norms and common
procedures. In this article we explore the possibility of utilizing a modernized concert
of powers as a framework for managing the coming power shifts. In order to do so, we
introduce two new elements in Power Transition Theory: (1) the importance of the (dis)
satisfaction of the declining hegemon with the anticipated future order, and (2) a broader
multilateral framework of major powers that overcomes the Power Transition Theory’s
traditional bilateral “duel” situation. On this basis, institutionalized power transition
management becomes possible. We then work out the norms, strengths and weaknesses
of the historical concert and update it with a few new features that would be necessary
for it to be successful in the 21st century. |
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