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LU Lingyu.[J].国际安全研究(英文版),2016,2(1):13-44
State Capacity and Recurring Civil Conflicts
英文关键词: state capacity; extractive capacity; civil conflicts; recurrence
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LU Lingyu  
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      The impacts of extractive capacity upon recurring civil conflicts are non- linear and conditional. This relationship is determined by three mechanisms that run in opposite directions. In the long run, stronger state capacity is expected to make military rebellion more difficult and expensive. In the short run, however, the effort to strengthen extractive capacity will increase taxpayers’ financial stress, thus engendering their grievance against the government and sympathy towards rebels. In the meantime, a government that attempts to raise more tax money will make its peace commitment less credible and endanger the fragile peace in the post-conflict period. Based upon the regression analysis of 138 civil conflicts in 70 countries from 1960 to 2007, this paper finds that how state capacity influences relapse to civil wars is essentially a domestic process. Specifically speaking, where there was a decisive victory in the previous episode of a conflict, increase in state capacity significantly makes the conflict less likely to recur. Nonetheless, the relationship is not significantly shaped by peace keeping operations. Furthermore, natural resources and foreign aid fail to significantly assist capable states in creating a more durable peace. Conversely, the two factors repress the independent influences of state capacity upon the recurrence of civil conflicts.
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