Page 59 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期

2023 ഐݾ 3 ඼

32%ǃ䫱䐟䘀࣋Ⲵ 26%ǃᐕъ㜭࣋Ⲵ 33%ǃ䫒䫱ӗ㜭Ⲵ 73%ԕ৺➔⛝ӗ㜭Ⲵ 75%DŽ
ķ
δӂεᘳ㿼ᡎ䍛ളਥ㜳ᆎ൞ެԌᡎ⮛ᮂᢁ

䈕⿽⨶䇪䙊ᑨሶᡈ㜌ഭоᡈ䍕ഭѻ䰤Ⲵᡈҹо઼ᒣㆰॆѪєњѫփ䰤ⲴҼݳঊ
ᔸDŽަṨᗳ㿲⛩ᱟˈа䖞ᡈҹѻਾˈ㜌䍏ৼᯩԕܥተ㔃ᶏᡈҹˈԕ㠣ᖬ↔䰤ӽ❦ሩ
࣋䟿ㅹ㓗ᰐ⌅䗮ᡀޡ䇶ˈᖰᖰՊ׳ᡀᯠа䖞⍻䈅ᇎ࣋ⲴᡈҹDŽ⭡Ҿ㜌࡙㘵ᡰ໎࣐Ⲵ

࣋䟿Ո࣯ᒦн਼ㅹൠ㻛ᡈ䍕ഭᡰ⨶䀓ˈഐ↔ˈྲ᷌ᡈ䍕ഭ䇔਼䘉⿽࣋䟿ㅹ㓗Ո࣯ˈ
ࡉՊ䘹ᤙ᭮ᔳ༽ӷᡈҹˈᡆᱟᨀ䇞઼ᒣ䇙↕ˈᡆᱟ〟ᶱ䈳ᮤᡈ⮕㘼䘹ᤙ䘭䲿˗ྲ᷌
ᡈ䍕ഭሩᡈ㜌ഭ࣋䟿Ո࣯㕪ѿ↓⺞Ⲵ䇔⸕ˈሩ㠚䓛࣋䟿ӽ❦ᣡᴹؑᗳˈࡉՊ䘹ᤙ䎠
ੁᯠа䖞༽ӷᡈҹѻ䐟DŽྲ᷌ᡈҹৼᯩ䖞⍱䇔ѪՈ࣯൘㠚ᐡаᯩˈ༽ӷᡈҹቡՊۿ

㙼ъᤣ᡻∄䎋аṧˈᢃкࠐњഎਸ❦ਾ䘰എࡠ਴㠚䀂㩭Ձ᚟ˈ❦ਾ޽䎧䓛ᨿࠫDŽ
ĸ
↔㊫ᆖ䈤䇔Ѫˈ൘ᵳ࣋ཙᒣѕ䟽ٮᯌⲴ㔍ሩᙗ࣋䟿䶒ࡽˈᡈ䍕ഭᖰᖰ䘹ᤙ᭮ᔳ
༽ӷᡈˈྲ᤯⹤ԁᡈҹਾⲴ⌅ഭ˗൘㜌䍏н㔍Ⲵܥተᡈҹਾˈਚ㾱ᡈ䍕ഭ䇔Ѫ㠚䓛

ӽ❦ᴹ䎒ᗇᡈҹⲴᵪՊˈቡՊઘᵏᙗൠሩĀᲲᰦⲴ㜌࡙㘵āਁࣘа䖞৸а䖞⍻䈅ᇎ
࣋Ⲵ༽ӷᡈҹˈྲ 1748 ᒤྕൠ࡙⦻ս㔗᢯ᡈҹѻਾнࡠॱᒤˈᲞྕৼᯩׯ䙊䗷ཆ
Ӕ䶙ભ䟽ᯠ㔃ⴏᒦ൘Ā㤡⌅гᒤᡈҹāѝ޽ᓖབྷᢃࠪ᡻DŽ1763 ᒤⲴljᐤ哾઼㓖NJ
ҏ⋑ᴹѪ㤡⌅єഭᑖᶕᤱѵⲴ઼ᒣDŽ15 ᒤਾˈ䐟᱃ॱޝ˄Louis XVI˅䙊䗷᭟ᤱे

㖾⤜・ᡈҹ㘼޽ᓖ䎠ੁҶሩ㤡ഭⲴ༽ӷѻ䐟DŽഐ↔ˈሩҾᡈ㜌ഭᶕ䇢ˈਚᴹ䇙ᡈ䍕
ഭᖫᓅ䇔␵༽ӷᰐᵋⲴᵳ࣋ᐞ䐍ˈ᡽Պ׳֯ަ᭮ᔳ༽ӷⲴᘥཤDŽ
ѪҶᇎ⧠ㆰ㓖Ⲵ䴰㾱ˈ⨶䇪ᑨᑨՊሩ༽ᵲⲴ⧠ᇎ䘋㹼ᣭ䊑DŽնᣭ䊑Ⲵᓅ㓯ᱟ㾱

؍⮉⧠ᇎѝᴰสᵜⲴṶᷦDŽࡽᵏ⨶䇪䙊䗷᧗ࡦਈ䟿Ⲵᯩᔿˈ䗷ᓖޣ⌘ᡈ㜌ഭоᡈ䍕
ഭѻ䰤ⲴҼݳㄎҹˈ㘼൘⧠ᇎൠ४ѫሬᵳㄎҹⲴ㌫㔏ѝˈࡉᆈ൘⵰ཊݳѫփ⴨ӂᢠ
ࣘⲴнっᇊ᭸ᓄDŽ൘↔䰞仈кˈ㛟ቬᙍgॾቄީ˄Kenneth N. Waltz˅ޣҾཊᶱॆ⸋
⴮Ⲵнっᇊ᭸ᓄ䇪䘠ᴰѪᱮ㪇DŽሩҾᡈ䍕ഭᶕ䇢ˈᰒᆈ൘⵰ᡈ㜌ഭоᡈ䍕ഭѻ䰤Ⲵ

ѫ㾱⸋⴮ˈҏਟ㜭ᆈ൘ᡈ䍕ഭоઘ䗩ަԆഭᇦ䰤Ⲵ⅑㾱⸋⴮DŽྲ᷌ᘭ㿶Ҷৼ䗩ߢケ
㛼Ჟлоᡈ䍕ഭᆈ൘⸋⴮Ⲵㅜйᯩ᭼ሩ࣋䟿ᡰӗ⭏ⲴĀ哴䳰൘ਾāᔿⲴᖡ૽ˈቡ⴨

ķ Winston S. Churchill, The World Crises: The Aftermath (Vol. 4), London: Rosetta Books, 2013,
p. 85.
ĸ Paul R. Hensel, “An Evolutionary Approach to the Study of Interstate Rivalry,” Conflict
Management and Peace Science, Vol. 17, No. 2, 1999, p. 186; Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War,
New York: The Free Press, 1988, pp. 112-113, 241, 293-294; Branislav L. Slantchey, “How Initiators
End Their Wars: The Duration of Warfare And The Terms of Peace,” American Journal of Political
Science, Vol. 48, No. 4, 2004, pp. 813-829; Donald Wittman, “How a War Ends: A Rational Model
Approach,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 23, No. 4, 1979, pp. 743-763.
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