Page 57 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期
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2023 ഐݾ 3
ӂ ᰘᴿ䀙䠀ެу䏩
ᆖ⭼ޣҾ४ฏѫሬᵳᡈҹѻਾⲴᡈ䍕ഭ㹼Ѫ䘹ᤙࠪ⧠ᐞᔲॆⲴഐ࠶᷀བྷ㠤
ਟ࠶Ѫй㊫DŽ
δжεᶛ㠠ᡎ㜒ളૂ㓜Ⲻᇳཝぁᓜ
䈕⿽㿲⛩Ⲵԓ㺘ᱟਔި⧠ᇎѫѹ⨶䇪DŽᆳᖰᖰௌ⅒ӾཆӔ᭯ㆆ䀂ᓖᨀࠪĀѪօᲞ
ྕᡈҹਾˈᲞ励༛ᰒ䎒ᗇҶᡈҹ৸䎒ᗇҶᴻ৻˗㘼Პ⌅ᡈҹਾˈᗧഭਚ䎒ᗇҶᡈҹত
䗃ᦹҶ઼ᒣā䘉㊫䰞仈DŽਔި⧠ᇎѫѹཆӔ᭯ㆆ⨶䇪䙊䗷ሩ∄⹄ウ䇔Ѫˈᖃᡈ㜌ഭо
ᡈ䍕ഭ൘઼㓖㕄㔃ᰦ㺘⧠ࠪᇑǃ৻ழǃݻࡦоᇭབྷᰦˈᖰᖰՊ䱽վਾ㘵Ⲵ㻛ཪᝏˈ
㕃䀓◰䘋Ⲵ≁᯿ѫѹᛵ㔚ˈ䘋㘼㜭ཏ߿䖫ަᰕਾਁࣘ༽ӷᡈҹⲴࣘᵪˈ⭊㠣ਟ㜭䎒ᗇ
ᵚᶕⲴ৻䈺DŽ৽ˈᖃᡈ㜌ഭоᡈ䍕ഭ൘઼㓖㕄㔃ᰦ㺘⧠ࠪ䍚ႚǃߧ═ǃۢធо㋇励
ᰦˈࡉਟ㜭ՊഐՔᇣࡠਾ㘵Ⲵ≁᯿㠚ሺ㘼лᚘо༽ӷⲴ⿽ᆀDŽᇭབྷⲴᶑ㓖ᖰᖰ㜭
ཏᑖᶕ䮯ѵⲴ઼ᒣˈ㘼㤋Ⲵᶑ㓖ࡉۿаᓗᔪ・൘⚛ኡਓкⲴ㓨㋺Ⲵབྷˈਚ㜭ણ
⵰⸝ᲲⲴĀՁᡈāDŽ䘉⿽ᔪ・൘⍱⋉ѻкⲴ઼ᒣᶱަ㜶ᕡˈаᰖᡈ䍕ഭᚒ༽Ҷ࣋䟿ˈ
ቡՊ䘛࠷ራ≲᧘㘫ቸ䗡ᙗᶑ㓖Ⲵᷧ䬱ᒦਁࣘ䴚㙫Ⲵ༽ӷᡈҹDŽ
ķ
ᶕ㠚㜌࡙㘵অੁⲴᇭᇕᱟՊᦒᶕཡ䍕㘵ᝏ਼䓛ਇⲴ䈵䀓оਸ˛наᇊDŽ
ഐѪྲ᷌䘉а⨶䇪ᡀ・Ⲵ䈍ˈ䛓Ѹ൘ 1962 ᒤѝঠ䗩ຳ㠚ছ৽ࠫᡈ㔃ᶏਾˈᡈ㜌ᯩ
ѝഭ൘ᡈҹ㔃᷌кሩঠᓖ᧘㹼Ⲵ⽬䇙о৻ழᰙቡ䈕䎒ᗇሩᯩⲴ৻䈺ҶDŽቡ㇇ 1871
ᒤྕᢈgߟgخᯟ哖˄Otto von Bismarck˅⋑ᴹ䇙⌅ഭ㓿শ㗎䗡Ⲵ䮌ᔪഭǃࢢൠ
о䎄ⅮˈѪࠐⲮᒤ⅗䱶䵨ѫⲴ⌅ഭˈਚ㾱ᇎ઼࣋ཆ䜘ᶑԦݱ䇨ˈӽ❦Պራ≲䙊䗷
а൪༽ӷᡈҹᶕᥭഎᵳ࣋༠䂹ᒦ䟽ᯠ᭛ਆ⅗䱶ѫሬൠսDŽ਼⨶ˈ㲭❦ྕसᑍഭ൘Პ
⌅ᡈҹᵏ䰤؍ᤱҶѝ・ˈնҏ㔍нᱟഐѪᝏᘥخᯟ哖ᴮ㓿ⲴழоᇭབྷDŽһᇎкˈ
ķ John Ikenberry, After Victory, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001, pp. 80-117;
Thucydides , History of the Peloponnesian War, Benjamin Jowett, trans., London: Oxford University
Press, 1900, p. 44; George F. Kennan, American Diplomacy (Sixtieth-Anniversary Expanded Edition) ,
Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press, 2012, p. 77; Arthur S. Link and Woodrow
Wilson, Revolutions, War and Peace, Arlington Heights: Harlan Davidson, 1979, p. 75; Janice Gross
Stein, ĀBuilding Politics into Psychology: The Misperception of Threat,” Political Psychology, Vol. 9,
No. 2, 1988, pp. 245-271; Lee Ross and Robert Ward, “Psychological Barriers to Dispute Resolutions,”
in Bertram Gawronski, ed., Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (Vol.27), San Diego:
Academic Press, 1995, pp. 255-304; Robert E. Harkavy, “Defeat, National Humiliation and the
Revenge Motifin International Politics,” International Politics, Vol. 37, No. 3, 2000, p. 346˗傜бgᘰ
⢩˖ljᵳ࣋᭯⋫NJˈᆻ⡡㗔䈁ˈц⭼⸕䇶ࠪ⡸⽮ 2004 ᒤ⡸ˈㅜ 60ǃ141 亥DŽ
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