Page 45 - 《国际安全研究》2025年第3期
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2025 ഐݾ 3
ķ
૽DŽަѝˈᆹޘഠຳᱟေ㛱Ⲵ䟽㾱ᶕⓀDŽ ᭫䱢⨶䇪䇔Ѫ൘ਚᴹ䱢ᗑঐՈⲴഭ䱵⧟
ຳѝˈေ㛱䇔⸕〻ᓖᱟᴰվⲴˈ㘼൘䘋᭫ঐՈ઼᭫䱢䳮ԕ४࠶Ⲵ⧟ຳлˈေ㛱䇔⸕〻
ĸ
ᓖ䖳儈DŽ ᵳ࣋䖜〫⨶䇪䇔Ѫေ㛱ⲴᶕⓀࠪ㠚փ㌫ѝєњབྷഭᇎ࣋Ⲵᰐ䲀᧕䘁ᡆፋ
Ĺ
䎧ഭᇎ࣋໎䮯Ⲵ䙏ᓖ䎵䎺ѫሬഭᰦDŽ 㖇՟⢩gᶠ㔤ᯟ˄Robert Jervis˅ҏ䇔Ѫေ㛱
䇔⸕ⓀҾаᯩ⢙䍘ᙗᇎ࣋Ⲵ໎䮯ˈᖃаഭ䇶ࡠሩᯩ䘋᭫㜭࣋Ⲵ໎䮯ˈሩަေ㛱䇔
ĺ
⸕〻ᓖቡՊ࣐␡DŽ ᯟ㪲㣜g⊳ቄ⢩˄Stephen Walt˅Ⲵေ㛱ࡦ㺑⨶䇪ᱟሩေ㛱䇔⸕
⨶䇪Ⲵॷॾˈҏਟԕᤜԕкᡰᴹ⧠ᇎѫѹ⨶䇪䐟ᖴⲴ㔤ᓖˈণൠ⨶Ѥ䘁ᙗǃ䘋
᭫ᇎ઼࣋䘋᭫മᖡ૽Ҷေ㛱䇔⸕〻ᓖDŽᵜ᮷ѫ㾱∄䖳㖾ഭн਼ᰦᵏӊཚ䵨ᵳᣔᤱ
ѝⲴေ㛱䇔⸕〻ᓖˈ᧗ࡦҶൠ⨶オ䰤㔤ᓖˈ᭵ൠ⨶Ѥ䘁ᙗᑨ䟿༴⨶DŽ䮯ᵏԕᶕˈ㖾
Ļ
ഭ᭯ᓌⲴབྷᡈ⮕оൠ४ᆹޘᡈ⮕Ⲵࡦᇊᴹ⵰᰾ᱮⲴĀေ㛱ሬੁᙗā⢩⛩DŽ ഐ↔ˈ䟽
ᯠ䇔⸕⧠ᇎ઼▌൘ေ㛱ቔަᱟሩ㖾ഭ䵨ᵳᣔᤱⲴ㍗䘛ᙗ〻ᓖˈᡀѪ㖾ഭ䈳ᮤ઼ࡦᇊ
ᯠⲴᆹޘᡈ⮕ѻࡽⲴᗵ㾱ᐕ˄৲㿱㺘 1˅DŽ
δӂε։㌱ু࣑фᧈԌᙝᆿޞᓜⲺ╊䘑ᖘᘷ
փ㌫࣋ѫ㾱Ⓚ㠚㔃ᶴѝⲴᇎ࣋࠶ᐳ઼ᵳ࣋䖜〫䎻࣯ˈՊሩഭᇦᆹޘᯭ࣐Ⲵа
ļ
㔃ᶴᙗ㓖ᶏDŽ ࡈѠᤷࠪˈփ㌫࣋䲔Ҷਇࡠ䙊㹼Ⲵ㔃ᶴᙗഐ㍐ѫሬˈ䘈൘䘋〻
Ľ
кਆߣҾፋ䎧ഭоփ㌫ѝབྷഭⲴӂࣘ⁑ᔿDŽ 䖳Ҿေ㛱䇔⸕ˈփ㌫࣋ᤷੁⲴᱟ
㖾ഭ൘ޘ⨳ᡆൠ४փ㌫ѝሩൠսਈॆᡰᕅਁⲴᇒ㿲ᡈDŽ⢩࡛ᱟ൘ѝഭፋ䎧㛼Ჟ
ľ
лˈփ㌫࣋Ⲵᕪᓖоѝ㖾ঊᔸ⛸ᓖᱮ㪇↓ޣDŽ ᵜ᮷䇔ѪˈнӵѝሿഭᇦՊ
ķ 㛟ቬᙍgॾቄީ˖ljӪǃഭᇦоᡈҹ˖а⨶䇪࠶᷀NJˈٚц䳴ㅹ䈁ˈк⎧䈁᮷ࠪ⡸⽮
1991 ᒤ⡸ˈㅜ 200-206 亥DŽ
ĸ Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1978,
p. 187; Stephen Van Evera, “Offense, Defenseˈand the Causes of War,” International Security, Vol. 22,
No. 4, 1998, p. 7.
Ĺ Abramo FK Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press,
1981, p. 62.
ĺ Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1978,
p. 175.
Ļ 丙ਜ仆ǃ哴䪺嗉˖ljሩߧᡈਾ㖾ഭབྷᡈ⮕Ⲵ㘳ሏ˖ⴞḷ䇮㖞ǃေ㛱⭼ᇊоᡈ⮕ᇎ䐥NJˈ
ljᖃԓӊཚNJ2019 ᒤㅜ 5 ᵏˈㅜ 65 亥DŽ
ļ Brock Tessman, “System Structure and State Strategy: Adding Hedging to the Menu,” Security
Studies, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2012, pp. 194-195.
Ľ ࡈѠǃ䱸ᘇ⪎˖ljьӊഭᇦᓄሩѝഭፋ䎧Ⲵᡈ⮕䘹ᤙ˖аᯠਔި⧠ᇎѫѹⲴ䀓䟺NJˈ
ljᖃԓӊཚNJ2015 ᒤㅜ 4 ᵏˈㅜ 16 亥DŽ
ľ 㜌࡙ǃ›ភࠍ˖lj丙ഭሩ㖾ഭĀঠཚᡈ⮕āᘱᓖ╄ਈⲴࣘഐ᧒᷀NJˈljц⭼㓿⍾о᭯
⋫䇪උNJ2024 ᒤㅜ 4 ᵏˈㅜ 45 亥DŽ
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