Page 45 - 《国际安全研究》2025年第3期
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2025 ഐݾ 3 ඼

                                                              ķ
                        ૽DŽަѝˈᆹޘഠຳᱟေ㛱Ⲵ䟽㾱ᶕⓀDŽ    ᭫䱢⨶䇪䇔Ѫ൘ਚᴹ䱢ᗑঐՈⲴഭ䱵⧟
                        ຳѝˈေ㛱䇔⸕〻ᓖᱟᴰվⲴˈ㘼൘䘋᭫ঐՈ઼᭫䱢䳮ԕ४࠶Ⲵ⧟ຳлˈေ㛱䇔⸕〻

                                 ĸ
                        ᓖ䖳儈DŽ    ᵳ࣋䖜〫⨶䇪䇔Ѫေ㛱ⲴᶕⓀࠪ㠚փ㌫ѝєњབྷഭᇎ࣋Ⲵᰐ䲀᧕䘁ᡆፋ
                                                         Ĺ
                        䎧ഭᇎ࣋໎䮯Ⲵ䙏ᓖ䎵䎺ѫሬഭᰦDŽ   㖇՟⢩gᶠ㔤ᯟ˄Robert Jervis˅ҏ䇔Ѫေ㛱
                        䇔⸕ⓀҾаᯩ⢙䍘ᙗᇎ࣋Ⲵ໎䮯ˈᖃаഭ᜿䇶ࡠሩᯩ䘋᭫㜭࣋Ⲵ໎䮯ˈሩަေ㛱䇔

                                         ĺ
                        ⸕〻ᓖቡՊ࣐␡DŽ   ᯟ㪲㣜g⊳ቄ⢩˄Stephen Walt˅Ⲵေ㛱ࡦ㺑⨶䇪ᱟሩေ㛱䇔⸕
                        ⨶䇪Ⲵॷॾˈҏਟԕ೺ᤜԕкᡰᴹ⧠ᇎѫѹ⨶䇪䐟ᖴⲴ᫽֌㔤ᓖˈণൠ⨶Ѥ䘁ᙗǃ䘋
                        ᭫ᇎ઼࣋䘋᭫᜿മᖡ૽Ҷေ㛱䇔⸕〻ᓖDŽᵜ᮷ѫ㾱∄䖳㖾ഭн਼ᰦᵏӊཚ䵨ᵳᣔᤱ
                        ѝⲴေ㛱䇔⸕〻ᓖˈ᧗ࡦҶൠ⨶オ䰤㔤ᓖˈ᭵ൠ⨶Ѥ䘁ᙗ֌ᑨ䟿༴⨶DŽ䮯ᵏԕᶕˈ㖾

                                                                                         Ļ
                        ഭ᭯ᓌⲴབྷᡈ⮕оൠ४ᆹޘᡈ⮕Ⲵࡦᇊᴹ⵰᰾ᱮⲴĀေ㛱ሬੁᙗā⢩⛩DŽ   ഐ↔ˈ䟽
                        ᯠ䇔⸕⧠ᇎ઼▌൘ေ㛱ቔަᱟሩ㖾ഭ䵨ᵳᣔᤱⲴ㍗䘛ᙗ〻ᓖˈᡀѪ㖾ഭ䈳ᮤ઼ࡦᇊ
                        ᯠⲴᆹޘᡈ⮕ѻࡽⲴᗵ㾱ᐕ֌˄৲㿱㺘 1˅DŽ

                           δӂε։㌱ু࣑фᧈԌᙝᆿޞ࡬ᓜⲺ╊䘑ᖘᘷ

                            փ㌫঻࣋ѫ㾱Ⓚ㠚㔃ᶴѝⲴᇎ࣋࠶ᐳ઼ᵳ࣋䖜〫䎻࣯ˈՊሩഭᇦᆹޘᯭ࣐Ⲵа
                                       ļ
                        ⿽㔃ᶴᙗ㓖ᶏDŽ   ࡈѠᤷࠪˈփ㌫঻࣋䲔Ҷਇࡠ䙊㹼Ⲵ㔃ᶴᙗഐ㍐ѫሬˈ䘈൘䘋〻
                                                                Ľ
                        кਆߣҾፋ䎧ഭоփ㌫ѝབྷഭⲴӂࣘ⁑ᔿDŽ   ⴨䖳Ҿေ㛱䇔⸕ˈփ㌫঻࣋ᤷੁⲴᱟ
                        㖾ഭ൘ޘ⨳ᡆൠ४փ㌫ѝ⴨ሩൠսਈॆᡰᕅਁⲴᇒ㿲᥁ᡈDŽ⢩࡛ᱟ൘ѝഭፋ䎧㛼Ჟ
                                                                        ľ
                        лˈփ㌫঻࣋Ⲵᕪᓖоѝ㖾ঊᔸ⛸ᓖ੸ᱮ㪇↓⴨ޣDŽ   ᵜ᮷䇔ѪˈнӵѝሿഭᇦՊ

                            ķ  㛟ቬᙍgॾቄީ˖ljӪǃഭᇦоᡈҹ˖а⿽⨶䇪࠶᷀NJˈٚц䳴ㅹ䈁ˈк⎧䈁᮷ࠪ⡸⽮
                        1991 ᒤ⡸ˈㅜ 200-206 亥DŽ
                            ĸ  Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1978,
                        p. 187; Stephen Van Evera, “Offense, Defenseˈand the Causes of War,” International Security, Vol. 22,
                        No. 4, 1998, p. 7.
                            Ĺ  Abramo FK Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press,
                        1981, p. 62.
                            ĺ  Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1978,
                        p. 175.
                            Ļ  丙ਜ仆ǃ哴䪺嗉˖ljሩߧᡈਾ㖾ഭབྷᡈ⮕Ⲵ㘳ሏ˖ⴞḷ䇮㖞ǃေ㛱⭼ᇊоᡈ⮕ᇎ䐥NJˈ
                       ljᖃԓӊཚNJ2019 ᒤㅜ 5 ᵏˈㅜ 65 亥DŽ
                            ļ  Brock Tessman, “System Structure and State Strategy: Adding Hedging to the Menu,” Security
                        Studies, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2012, pp. 194-195.
                            Ľ  ࡈѠǃ䱸ᘇ⪎˖ljьӊഭᇦᓄሩѝഭፋ䎧Ⲵᡈ⮕䘹ᤙ˖а⿽ᯠਔި⧠ᇎѫѹⲴ䀓䟺NJˈ
                       ljᖃԓӊཚNJ2015 ᒤㅜ 4 ᵏˈㅜ 16 亥DŽ
                            ľ  ߼㜌࡙ǃ›ភࠍ˖lj丙ഭሩ㖾ഭĀঠཚᡈ⮕āᘱᓖ╄ਈⲴࣘഐ᧒᷀NJˈljц⭼㓿⍾о᭯
                        ⋫䇪උNJ2024 ᒤㅜ 4 ᵏˈㅜ 45 亥DŽ
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