Page 159 - 《国际安全研究》2021年第3期

Vo1. 39, No. 3, May/June 2021

25 Exerting “Subordinate-Side Pressure”: Alliance Consolidation or
Disintegration?
—A Study on the Political Conditions and Types of “Offensive Wedge
Strategy”
JIANG Peng

[Abstract] The research agenda of alliance-splitting abounds in studies on the types
of “wedge strategy”, but lacks literature on the causal mechanism behind the
differentiation of different types of “wedge strategy” as well as its conductive
process. As a key component of the “offensive wedge strategy”, “subordinate-side
pressure” refers to a means of splitting an alliance, employing crises to exert security
pressures on the subordinate allies in an alliance and causing tension within it until
its disintegration. Through studies on the covariant relationship among the elements
of this microscopic alliance theory, the findings are that “existing power
comparison”, “power changing tendency” and “power gain-loss judgment” among
major powers are the three core variables that determine the implementation effect
of the “subordinate-side pressure” strategy. The willingness of the leading country to
intervene in its ally’s crisis tends to be the strongest under the condition of “strength
advantage” and “trend anxiety”, while it will be the weakest the other way around.
As for the two uncertain situations of “possessing strength advantage with trend
dominance” and “suffering strength disadvantage with trend anxiety”, the
explanation will be more compelling when applying the “prospect theory” to the
auxiliary judgment of “power gain-loss situation” of the leading country in the
alliance. The proposal of this theory of exerting “subordinate-side pressure” not only
has great significance of practical guidance for the specific implementation
conditions, timing, and strategy selection of the existing “offensive wedge strategy”,
but also helps the strategy-implementer avoid the counterproductive result of
strengthening the ties among members of a hostile alliance due to the misjudgment
of conditions and timing.
[Keywords] wedge strategy, crisis diplomacy, alliance split, prealignment, strategic
risk
[Author] JIANG Peng, Associate Professor, School of International Relations, Sun
Yat-Sen University (Zhuhai, 519000).

52 Consensus and Divergences among Philippine Political Groups on the
South China Sea Issue and Their Causes

YANG Chao
[Abstract] Various domestic political groups of the Philippines have varying degrees
of influence on the formulation of policies relating to the South China Sea. Based on
its so-called national interests, political groups of the Philippines have reached the
following consensus on the South China Sea issue: upholding the Philippines’

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