Page 162 - 《国际安全研究》2021年第4期

Journal of International Security Studies
women’s empowerment at the micro level. Given that most studies are based on
observational data, it is difficult to accurately evaluate the causal effects of armed
conflicts on women’s empowerment. Armed conflicts in the Republic of Mali in
2008 and Nigeria in 2012 coincided with nationally representative questionnaire
surveys conducted by “Afrobarometer” in the two countries. According to the
findings of the statistical analysis, armed conflicts, in the short term, have
significantly increased respondents’ dissatisfaction with the government’s handling
of issues concerning women’s empowerment, but at the same time heightened
people’s awareness and perceptions of the unfair treatment of women in their
country and thus provided a social support basis for the implementation of policy
reforms to enhance women’s empowerment. Probing into and sorting out the impact
of armed conflicts on the process of women’s empowerment at the micro level will
provide a new perspective for studies at the macro and transnational levels.
[Keywords] armed conflicts, women’s empowerment, natural experiment, causal
inference, survey data, Afrobarometer
[Author] CHEN Chong, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations,
School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University (Beijing, 100084).

128 Rebel Governance Regime and Insurgent Success

ZHOU Yiqi
[Abstract] At present, the regime construction of rebel governance has come under
the spotlight of civil war studies. The rebel governance regime is a system of
corresponding institutions and rules for armed rebel groups to manage the area and
people under their control. By taking the insurgent success as the analytical object
and assessing systematically the impact exerted by rebel governance construction on
gaining advantages in the course of civil war, this paper argues that insurgent
success of armed rebel groups is not directly determined by the rebel governance
regime but depends more on the effects produced by the regime within and beyond
those armed rebel groups. In the internal dimension, the rebel governance regime
needs to achieve good governance; in the external dimension, the rebel governance
regime needs an enabling international strategic environment that can be shaped by
the regime itself. Since the rebel governance regime does not ensure the
corresponding effect in terms of the above-mentioned two dimensions, the
relationship between it and insurgent success is highly uncertain. To test the
argument, this paper adopts the model of mixed methods. In the field of quantitative
research, this paper examines the relationship between the rebel governance regime
and insurgent success through two different levels of databases and comes to the
conclusion that there is no direct link between them. In terms of comparative case
studies, the analysis of two practical cases of specific armed groups (Taliban and
ISIS) reveals that the relationship between the governance regime of armed groups
and insurgent success is uncertain and hence there exists no simple positive
promotion relationship between them.
[Keywords] armed rebel groups, civil war, rebel governance, insurgent success,
mixed methods
[Author] ZHOU Yiqi, Assistant Research Fellow, Shanghai Institutes for International
Studies (Shanghai, 200233).
（本期英文编辑：张国帅 高静）

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