Page 161 - 《国际安全研究》2021年第4期

Vo1. 39, No. 4, July/August 2021
conflicts between China and the US. In order to promote the correct positioning of
its roles and carry out positive security interactions with China, the United States
should heighten its awareness of rules and highlight its roles and obligations on
security issues in East Asia.
[Keywords] Sino-US relations, role theory, security cooperation, Korean Peninsula
nuclear issue, the South China Sea disputes
[Author] LI Kaisheng, Research Fellow and Deputy Director, Institute of International
Relations of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (Shanghai, 200020).

80 Probing into the Spread of Internal Conflicts: Electoral Support and
Geographical Environment

YANG Chenbo
[Abstract] It is of paramount significance to understand the factors influencing the
scope of armed conflict in civil wars for both the countries concerned and the
international conflict management regime. It is generally believed that electoral
events and geographical factors may play a significant role in the outbreak and
escalation of civil conflicts, but there is still room for in-depth discussions on how
these factors affect the internal spillover path of civil wars. Different from common
interpretations of the existing literature, this paper seeks to explore the impact of the
local voting support in elections as well as socio-economic and geographical
environment on the outbreak of armed conflicts and take as empirical observation
objects the sub-national administrative units in the case of the Sri Lankan civil war.
Therefore, this paper will examine actual impacts of the two influencing factors in
the spread of internal conflicts within the same analytical framework. The empirical
study has found that there is a spatial clustering effect as regards the risk of armed
conflict between different units; urban-rural distance reflecting socio-economic and
geographical conditions may exert a more prominent impact on local conflict risks
than natural and geographical conditions; shorter distances between urban and rural
areas may increase the risks of armed conflicts in both local and neighboring units;
local voting support for the central government fails to play a stable role in
preventing “risk spillover” and the occurrence of armed conflicts.
[Keywords] spread of internal conflicts, Sri Lankan Civil War, election, spatial
dependence
[Author] YANG Chenbo, Associate Professor, Institute for Central Asian Studies,
School of Politics and International Relations, Lanzhou University (Lanzhou,
730000).

103 Armed Conflicts and Women’s Empowerment: An Empirical Study
Based on Two Natural Experiments

CHEN Chong
[Abstract] In recent years, scholars have been focusing on the impact of armed
conflicts on gender equality and women’s empowerment. Existing studies have
found that armed conflicts do far more harm to women than to men, but they also
create opportunities for women’s political empowerment and objectively facilitate
women’s political participation. However, a vast majority of the studies concentrate
on the macro-national level and pay little attention to how armed conflicts affect

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