Page 52 - 201804
P. 52
公共物品供给与国内冲突的复发
①
进行的战争动员。这个变量的数据也取自冲突终结数据库。
（三）控制变量
本文的回归方程首先保留了国家能力这个变量，并以现值美元计算的人均军
②
事开支的对数来加以度量。 芭芭拉·沃尔特和贾森·奎因（Jason Quinn）等的
研究表明，国家能力显著地降低国内冲突复发的概率。本文期待同样的结果。
③
作者用下述两个变量来模拟冲突历史，其中之一是上一次（轮）冲突持续的
天数以及战死人数。由于两个数据都远远偏离正态分布，所以本文做了对数化处
④
理。有学者发现，冲突持续时间越久，复发的可能性越小。 与此同时，伤亡人
数越大，战争再次发生的可能性越大，因为它会产生强烈的复仇欲望，并克服交
⑤
战双方的信息不对称问题。
回归方程还控制了前一次（轮）战争结束方式这一虚拟变量：决定性胜利
（1）或否（0）。战争如果以压倒性胜利结束，那么被击败的一方很难再有机会
⑥
卷土重来。 其次，上一次冲突的解决方式也可能是签订和平协议。按照冲突结
束数据库的界定，和平协议涉及解决或协调利益冲突问题。它的全部条款或主要
⑦
内容被上一次冲突的所有各方或主要方签字接受。 相对于停火，和平协议是一
① Kristine Eck, “From Armed Conflict to War: Ethnic Mobilization and Conflict Intensification,”
International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 53, No. 2 (September 2009), pp. 369-388; Joakim Kreutz, “How
and When Armed Conflicts End: Introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination Dataset,” Journal of
Peace Research, Vol. 47, No. 2 (March 2010), pp. 243-250.
② J. Singer, et al., “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965,” in
Bruce Russett, ed., Peace, War, and Numbers, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1972, pp. 19-48.
③ Barbara Walter, “Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War,” Journal of
Peace Research, Vol. 41, No. 3 (May 2004), pp. 371-388; J. M. Quinn, David Mason and Mehmet
Gurses, “Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence,” International Interactions,
Vol. 33, No. 2 (January 2002), pp. 167-193.
④ Barbara Walter, “Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War,” Journal of
Peace Research, Vol. 41, No. 3 (May 2004), pp. 371-388.
⑤ Barbara Walter, “Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War,” Journal of
Peace Research, Vol. 41, No. 3 (May 2004), pp. 371-388; J. M. Quinn, David Mason and Mehmet
Gurses, “Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence,” International Interactions,
Vol. 33, No. 2 (January 2002), pp. 167-193.
⑥ Barbara Walter, “Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War,” Journal of
Peace Research, Vol. 41, No. 3 (May 2004), pp. 371-388; Barbara Walter, “Conflict Relapse and the
Sustainability of Post-Conflict Peace,” Background Paper of World Development Report 2011, World
Bank, September 13, 2010, pp. 1-41.
⑦ Joakim Kreutz, “How and When Armed Conflicts End: Introducing the UCDP Conflict
Termination Dataset,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 47, No. 2 (March 2010), pp. 243-250.
· 50 ·
