Page 161 - 《国际安全研究》2021年第2期

Vo1. 39, No. 2, March/April 2021
deterrence, the United States has been seeking to weaken China’s nuclear retaliation
capability and disrupt the asymmetric nuclear stability between the two countries. In
order to break the stalemate, China needs to step up efforts to improve the quality of
its nuclear weapons, enhance the effectiveness of deterrence signaling, dispel the US
strategic opportunistic mentality with reliable nuclear deterrence and counterattack
capacities, maintain strategic stability between the two countries, especially crisis
stability, and build a firm foundation for containing the outbreak of war.
[Keywords] nuclear weapons, strategic stability, asymmetric stability, nuclear
retaliation capability, strategic opportunism
[Author] HU Gaochen, Postdoctoral Student and Assistant Research Fellow, School
of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University (Beijing, 100084).

86 Japan’s China Policy under Abe Administration: From Strategic
Balancing to Tactical Hedging
CHEUNG Mong

[Abstract] Japan’s diplomacy with China under the second Abe administration has
been greatly influenced by the international situation and the US-China-Japan
strategic triangle. This article argues that Japan, as a secondary power, has been
shifting its China policy from “strategic balancing” to “tactical hedging” since 2017,
and is adopting a mixed strategy that intends to search for a THIRD strategic choice
between the United States and China. Before 2017, Japan adopted a strategic
balancing approach by promoting “Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” (TPP)
with the United States, consolidating Self-Defense Forces (SDF) capability on island
defense, and downplaying China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”. After 2017, given the
uncertainty revealed in the US-China relations, Japan has adopted a tactical hedging
approach by promoting the openness of the “Indo-Pacific Initiative” and China-Japan
top leader summit, further consolidating defense capability, and demonstrating a
partially positive attitude towards China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The author
thinks that, in the Reiwa Era, Japan will rise to be a Middle Power with increased,
while limited, strategic autonomy and is likely to engage with China more deliberately
within the framework of Japan–US alliance.
[Keywords] balancing, hedging, Sino-Japanese relations, Japan’s foreign policy,
China- US-Japan strategic triangle
[Author] CHEUNG Mong, Ph.D., Associate Professor, International Liberal Studies
(SILS), Waseda University, Japan.

107 Alliance Dilemma, Rational Choice and the Limited Upgrading of
Australia-US Alliance
XU Shanpin and ZHANG Tao

[Abstract] In any alliance, there exists an alliance dilemma featuring “abandonment”
and “entrapment”. Australia’s subordinate position in the Australia-US alliance also
creates a dilemma for it to face. Australia fears “abandonment” if it highlights
strategic autonomy and dreads “entrapment” if it further consolidates its alliance
with the United States. After assessing and weighing the international and regional
situations such as the rapid rise of China, the strategic contraction of the United

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