Page 102 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期

߭ිྟ౰ӊაݓ࠽ᅞᆚ֥Ⴚؿ澳

Ⲵਁኅ▌㜭ˈᇎ࣋ሩ∄Ⲵཙᒣ䎺ᶕ䎺ᵍ⵰н࡙ҾᗧഭⲴᯩੁٮᯌDŽ
ķ
൘ᮠ䟿Ո࣯䙀⑀їཡⲴ਼ᰦˈᗧߋⲴ㇑⨶᭸㜭ˈቔަᱟᡈ⮕ᵪࣘ㜭࣋ҏᒦᵚᴹ

ᱮ㪇Ⲵᨀ儈DŽ䲔Ҷ䙊ؑǃӔ䙊䘀䗃ᢰᵟਁኅⲴ⴨ሩڌ┎ˈᗧഭ൘ᡈ⮕䫱䐟ส⹰䇮ᯭ
ᔪ䇮кⲴᣅޕӖн䏣ˈԕ㠣Ҿ䫱䐟Ӕ䙊Ⲵ䘀࣋ᆈ䟿ᵚ㜭࠷ᇎᨀ儈DŽᗧߋቭ㇑ᗇ⳺Ҿ
1913 ᒤ䙊䗷Ⲵ䱶ߋ⌅ṸᢙݵҶޥઈˈնᡈҹ䜘ত᰾⺞ᤷࠪᗧߋ㕪ѿ㜭ཏሶ༛ޥ㓴

㓷ᡀߋⲴߋᇈˈҏᰐ⌅ѪᢙᇩⲴߋ䱏ᨀ׋ݵ䏣Ⲵ⢙䍴؍䳌ˈ ᡈ⮕䫱䐟Ⲵ䘀䖭䟿ᴤ
ĸ
࣐᥹㾏㿱㛈DŽоѻ⴨ሩᓄⲴᱟˈ਼аᰦᵏⲴ״ഭࡉ൘⌅ഭ䍴䠁Ⲵ᭟ᤱлᔰ࿻Ҷᡈ⮕
䫱䐟Ⲵབྷ㿴⁑؞ᔪDŽ
Ĺ
ᗧߋᙫ৲䈻䜘൘ѫ㿲кሩᯭ䟼㣜䇑ࡂⲴᇎ㹼䳮ᓖ઼վᡀ࣏ᾲ⦷ᱟᴹݵ࠶䇔䇶

Ⲵˈ նയҾᗧഭഭ޵䍴ⓀⲴተ䲀ˈᗧߋᵚ㜭ሶ⺞؍ᯭ䟼㣜䇑ࡂᡀ࣏Ⲵ⺜Ԧᨀॷࡠ
ĺ
䏣ཏⲴ≤ᒣDŽѪҶݻᴽк䘠ഠຳˈᗧഭ䴰㾱ቭਟ㜭ཊൠᢙབྷݸࣘՈ࣯ˈݸҾሩ᡻䟷
ਆ㹼ࣘⲴᰦ䰤ᐞ䎺䮯䎺ᴹ࡙Ҿ䇑ࡂⲴᡀ࣏DŽ❦㘼ˈᰐ䇪Ӿഭ޵᭯⋫䘈ᱟӾഭ䱵᭯⋫

䀂ᓖⴻˈݸਁࡦӪᔿᢃࠫਟ㜭ሬ㠤Ⲵᡈ⮕ԓԧ䎺ᶕ䎺䳮ԕѪᗧഭᡰ᢯ਇDŽ
൘ഭ䱵кˈਁࣘݸਁࡦӪᔿᢃࠫнӵሶ֯ᗧഭ䶒ѤᐘབྷⲴഭ䱵㠶䇪঻࣋ˈ㘼
ф䘈Պӗ⭏䘎ᑖߋһᖡ૽˖ᗧഭᴰѪ亮ᗼⲴᡈ⮕ሩ᡻üü㤡ഭѝ・Ⲵਟ㹼ᙗሶഐ
↔н༽ᆈ൘ˈ㘼᜿བྷ࡙ሩᗧྕᡰ䍏ᴹⲴ䱢ᗑᙗ਼ⴏѹ࣑ҏнՊ㻛䀖ਁˈ аᰖᗧ
Ļ
ഭѫࣘ䘋᭫⌅״ˈᰐ⯁ሶ֯ᗧྕ䲧ޕ䶎ᑨн࡙ⲴཆӔǃߋһຳൠDŽቡᗧഭ޵᭯㘼
䀰ˈݸਁࡦӪᔿ䘋᭫ᡈ⮕н࡙Ҿ᭯ᓌᮤਸഭ޵਴⍮ˈቔަᱟۿᗧഭ⽮≁ފ䘉ṧᴮ
ᤱᴹ◰⛸৽ᡈ・൪Ⲵᕪབྷ᭯⋫࣯࣋DŽᰦԫᗧഭᇠ⴨⢩ྕᐤⲫg䍍⢩ᴬg䴽ቄ㔤Ṭ

˄Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg˅䴰㾱ᶴᜣࠪа྇㜭ཏݵ࠶ᮤਸᗧഭഭ޵ᐖਣ㘬
࣯࣋Ⲵ䈻⮕ˈԕᑞࣙަᇎ⧠ 1848 ᒤԕᶕশԫᗧഭ亶ሬӪ䜭ᵚ㜭ᇎ⧠Ⲵཷ䘩ˈ 䘋
ļ

澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ Thomas J. Christensen and Jack L. Snyder, “Multipolarity, Perceptions, and the Tragedy of
1914,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 55, No. 2, 2011, p. 307˗David G. Herrmann, The Arming
of Europe and the Making of the First World War, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996, p. 209.
ĸ David G. Herrmann, The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War, Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 1996, p. 188-190.
Ĺ D. N. Collins, “The Franco-Russian Alliance and Russian Railways, 1891-1914,” The
Historical Journal, Vol. 16, No. 4, 1973, pp. 786-788.
ĺ Annika Mombauer, “Of War Plans and War Guilt: The Debate Surrounding the Schlieffen
Plan,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 28, No. 5, 2005, p. 868.
Ļ ẵ❦˖ljᗧ᜿ᘇᑍഭⲴབྷᡈ⮕˖ᗧഭоབྷᡈⲴᶕѤNJˈेӜབྷᆖࠪ⡸⽮ 2016 ᒤ⡸ˈㅜ 476 亥DŽ
ļ A. J. P Taylor, War by Time-table: How the First World War Began, London: Macdonald & Co
Ltd., 1969, p. 88.
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