Page 103 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期

2023 ഐݾ 3 ඼澳

㘼ݵ࠶◰ਁᗧഭⲴᡈҹ▌㜭DŽ
สҾк䘠亮㲁ˈᗧഭߣㆆቲѝⲴ᮷↖ᇈઈ䜭ݵ࠶᜿䇶ࡠᗵ享䇙״ഭᡆ㘵״⌅є

ഭᔰㅜаᷚˈԕׯᗧྕⲴĀ㠚ছāߋһ㹼ࣘ൘ഭ䱵઼ഭ޵㧧ᗇৼ䟽ਸ⌅ᙗ˖ਆᗇഭ
޵਴⍮᭯⋫࣯࣋ԕ৺Პ䙊≁ՇⲴ਼ᛵˈ ਼ᰦ࣋ҹ᧘䘏㤡ഭӻޕབྷ䱶ᡈҹⲴᰦ䰤⭊
ķ
㠣൘ਟ㜭Ⲵᛵߥл⺞؍㤡ഭѝ・DŽ ᗧഭѪ↔൘гᴸডᵪᵏ䰤ˈ㻛䘛䘭≲ਾਁࡦӪ
ĸ
ᔿߋһㆆ⮕ˈㅹᖵॿ㓖ഭቔަᱟ״ᯩᔰㅜаᷚˈ㘼ਾ䗵䙏䱢ᆸ৽ࠫDŽ
Ĺ
ѪҶᇎ⧠൘ޥ࣋н䏣ǃߋһᵪࣘ㜭࣋ਇ䲀Ⲵৼ䟽ഠຳлਾਁࡦӪˈᗧߋᙫ৲䈻
䜘ቍ䈅䙊䗷㋮㓶Ⲵᡈҹᰦ࡫㺘㿴ࡂ઼⟏㓳Ⲵ➗㺘᫽䈮ᶕቭਟ㜭ൠ᥆ᧈᗧߋⲴᵪࣘ

▌࣋ˈԕ⺞؍ᯭ䟼㣜䇑ࡂⲴᡀ࣏ᇎᯭDŽ 㓿䗷৽༽ߋһ╄㓳ˈᢗ㹼䇑ࡂᰦᡈᵟᇎᯭ
ĺ
ቲ䶒ਟ㜭ᆈ൘Ⲵ㕪䲧㻛䙀аݻᴽDŽᡈҹ䇑ࡂⲴᰕ〻ᆹᧂ䎺ᶕ䎺㍗ࠁˈབྷ䟿ਟ㜭ᤆᔦ
ᡈ⮕ᵪࣘⲴ䳌⺽㻛⎸䲔ˈᗧߋሶ༛ҏ䎺ᶕ䎺⟏㓳ൠ᤹➗䇑ࡂ䘋㹼ᡈҹˈ❦㘼ᡈ⮕ᡈ

ᵟⲴᇩ䭉⦷ҏഐ↔ᙕ䚭л䱽ˈ ԕ㠣Ҿᵚᶕሶ䇑ࡂⵏ↓Ԉ䈨ᇎᯭᰦˈᢗ㹼㘵Պሩᰦ
Ļ
䰤ਈᗇ儈ᓖ᭿ᝏˈф൘ᢗ㹼䇑ࡂᰦ儈ᓖ׍䎆㓨䶒䇑ࡂ㘼䳮ԕ䲿ᵪᓄਈDŽᡈ⮕ᇎᯭᰦ
ԫօањ⧟㢲Ⲵ䖫ᗞཡ䈟䜭ᴹਟ㜭ሬ㠤ᮤњᡈҹⲴཡ䍕DŽ ቭ㇑ᖃᰦ਴ഭⲴߋһ䇑
ļ
ࡂᡆཊᡆቁൠ䜭ᆈ൘㊫լⲴᰦ䰤᭿ᝏ䰞仈ˈնᱟᗧഭԕᯭ䟼㣜䇑ࡂѪ㬍ᵜⲴߋһᡈ
⮕ᡰ੸⧠Ⲵᰦ䰤᭿ᝏᰐ⯁ᱟᴰѪѕ䟽ⲴDŽ䘉ҏ൘аᇊ〻ᓖк䀓䟺ҶѪօᗧഭⲴࣘઈ
ণ᜿ણ⵰ᔰᡈˈнᆈ൘㻛䘶䖜Ⲵਟ㜭ᙗDŽ

൘гᴸডᵪੁ▌൘Ⲵབྷ㿴⁑ߋһߢケॷ㓗Ⲵ䗷〻ѝˈᗧഭߣㆆ㘵ѫ㿲䇔⸕ࡠⲴ
অսᰦ䰤ᡀᵜⲴԧ٬㻛ཨབྷҶDŽ਼ㅹᰦ䰤ᣅޕⲴԧ٬൘䘉⿽ডᵪᛵຳлሩߣㆆ㘵㘼
䀰ਈᗇᴤѪᇍ䍥DŽ਼ᰦˈ䎺ᱟѤ䘁ߣㆆ㘵ѫ㿲㟶⍻Ⲵᡈҹ⠶ਁᰦ࡫ˈߋһ㘳䟿䎺ᱟ

澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ Konrad H. Jarausch, “The Illusion of Limited War: Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg’s
Calculated Risk, July 1914,” Central European History, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1969, pp. 66-67.
ĸ Michael R. Gordon, “Domestic Conflict and the Origins of the First World War: The British
and the German Cases,” The Journal of Modern History, Vol. 46, No. 2, 1974, pp. 194-195.
Ĺ James Joll, The Origins of the First World War, London: Longman, 1984, p. 28; Jack S. Levy,
“Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War,” World Politics, Vol. 40, No. 1, 1987, p. 89.
ĺ David Stevenson, “War by Timetable? The Railway Race before 1914,” Past and Present, Vol.
162, No. 1, 1999, p. 172.
Ļ Jack S. Levy, “Organizational Routines and the Causes of War,” International Studies
Quarterly, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1986, p. 196.
ļ ᗧⲷ㾱≲ᗧߋڌ→㾯㓯䘋ߋԕҹਆ㤡ഭѝ・ⲴભԔ㻛ሿ∋ཷ䇔Ѫ൘ߋһкнਟ㹼ˈ䘉Ӿ
ח䶒ঠ䇱Ҷᯭ䟼㣜䇑ࡂⲴܥॆDŽ৲㿱 Annika Mombauer, Helmuth von Moltke and the Origins of the
First World War, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001, pp. 219-220DŽ
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