Page 78 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期
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ᅞϧᆭުğ൞گԕؓॆߎ൞ሔෛࢲૐĤ
ޕⲴᰕ⑀࣐␡ˈ״ഭо⪎ިѻ䰤Ⲵ⸋ᗇࡠҶṩᵜᙗ㕃䀓DŽ਼ᰦˈᗧᘇൠ४Ⲵ䮯
ᵏ࠶㻲оᲞྕѻ䰤Ⲵઘᵏᙗሩᣇˈ䜭֯ᗇ⪎ިઘ䗩⋑ᴹሩަഭᇦᆹޘо⭏ᆈᶴᡀေ
㛱Ⲵㅜйᯩᡈ⮕᭼ˈ䘉֯ަ䶒Ѥ⵰∄䖳ᇭᶮоवᇩⲴᡈ⮕⧟ຳˈӾ㘼֯⪎ިᴹᶑ
Ԧ൘㤡⌅״Პྕབྷഭᵳ࣋ㄎҹѝ䘹ᤙнㄉ䱏Ⲵ䳀䘰䚃䐟DŽ
δޣεሯ䇷ՠṾׁⲺ㘹ሕ
ݻ䟼㊣ӊᡈҹ㔃ᶏਾˈԁйц⌅ഭਆԓҶ⋉ⲷ״ഭⲴ⅗䱶䵨ѫൠսDŽ䢤Ҿ
ഭ࣋༽Ⲵ״ഭ൘㔬ਸᇎ࣋кӽо⌅ഭ༴Ҿ਼а࣋䟿ㅹ㓗ˈ⭊㠣൘ԁйц⌅ഭ
ѻк˄৲㿱㺘 7˅ˈ਼ᰦᗧᘇ䛖㚄Ⲵ㙇о൏㙣ަⲴ㲊ᕡ֯״ഭઘ䗩ҏ㕪ѿ㜭ཏ
ሩަᖒᡀᴹ᭸⢥ࡦⲴㅜйᯩ᭼ሩབྷഭDŽᰐ䇪Ӿᵳ࣋Ⲵ㔃ᶴᙗ㾱㍐ⴻˈ䘈ᱟӾေ㛱Ⲵ
ᛵ࣯ᙗ㾱㍐ⴻˈഭ࣋༽Ⲵ״ഭ䜭ާᴹ傜кሩ⌅ഭ༽ӷᒦཪഎ⅗䱶ѫሬᵳⲴᕪ⛸ࣘ
ᵪˈ䛓ѸѪօ⋑ᴹࠪ⧠״ഭሩ⌅ഭਁࣘ༽ӷᡈҹⲴ㔃᷌˛
㺞 ށ䠂㊩Ӑᡎҿ⌋њളሯ㔲ਾ࣑䠅δ ᒪε
ഭ࡛ 㓿⍾࣋䟿˄ӯ㖾ݳ˅ ߋ䱏㿴⁑˄зӪ˅ Ӫਓᙫ䟿˄з˅ ߋ䍩ᔰ᭟˄з㤡䮁˅
״ഭ 144 86.2 7 410 1 871.6
⌅ഭ 133 60.8 3 730 2 574.6
∄䟽 108% 141% 198% 72.6%
䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖⌅״єഭߋ䱏㿴⁑઼ GNP ᮠᦞᶕⓀ˖Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great
Power, London: Unwin Hyman, 1988, pp. 154, 171˗״ഭӪਓᙫ䟿ᮠᦞᶕⓀ˖Tacitus Historical Atlas,
“Population of Eastern Europe,” https://www.tacitus.nu/historical-atlas/population/russia.htm˗⌅ഭӪ
ਓᙫ䟿ᮠᦞᶕⓀ˖Maddison Project Database 2020, “Maddison Style Estimates of the Evolution of the
World Economy, A New 2020 Update,” https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/
maddison-project-database-2020˗⌅״ߋһ᭟ࠪᮠᦞᶕⓀ˖The National Material Capabilities Data Set,
“Correlates of War Project, National Material Capabilities (NMC) Data Documentation, Version 6.0
(Period Covered: 1816-2016),” https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/national-material-capabilitiesDŽ
䘉⿽ⴻլ䘍㛼ᵜ⨶䇪สᵜ㿲⛩Ⲵ䘶ੁṸֻˈᇎ䍘кӽ❦ㅖਸᵜ⨶䇪Ⲵѫᕐˈਚ
ᱟ⭡Ҿڦ❦Ⲵ⢩↺ᙗሬ㠤⨶䇪亴ᵏⲴ㔃᷌⋑ᴹࠪ⧠DŽ״ഭ㠚 1855 ᒤݻ䟼㊣ӊᡈ
ҹԕᶕаⴤᆈᴹሩ⌅ഭ༽ӷⲴᕪ⛸ࣘᵪˈਚഐ൘⋉״ഭ࣋༽Ⲵ䘋〻ѝˈᲞ励༛Ҿ
1871 ᒤᣒݸࠫ䍕Ҷ⌅ഭˈᒦӾਾ㘵ཤк᪈ᗇ⅗䱶䵨ѫṲߐˈሬ㠤⋑ᴹࠪ⧠⋉ⲷ
״ഭሩ⌅༽ӷⲴ㔃᷌˗ࡉˈа൪⭡״ഭ䎧Ⲵо⌅ഭ䟽ᯠҹཪ⅗䱶䵨ᵳⲴᡈҹ䘏
ᰙՊࠪ⧠DŽ䈕㿲⛩Ӿਖањ䀂ᓖҏ㜭ᗇࡠ䖳ྭⲴঠ䇱ˈণᲞ⌅ᡈҹ⠶ਁਾⲴㅜаᰦ
䰤ˈ⋉ⲷׯѫࣘ൘״ྕ䗩ຳ䱸ޥ 30 зᒦေ㛱ྕൠ࡙н䇨࣐ޕ⌅ഭ䱥㩕DŽ↓ᱟ״ഭ
൘䘉аޣ䭞ᰦሩᲞ励༛Ⲵ᭟ᤱˈᴹ᭸ൠᑞࣙҶਾ㘵㧧ᗇঅ⤜о⌅ഭߣᡈⲴᵪՊˈ
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