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                        ԕᶴᡀഭᇦⲴᔰᡈࣘᵪ   üüн਼ˈᐳ励ᯟgᐳቄ䈪gᗧgẵᯟཾຄ˄Bruce Bueno De
                                             ķ
                        Mesquita˅Ⲵ亴ᵏ᭸⭘⁑රᇎ䱵к൘ഭᇦⲴᡈҹߣㆆ䗷〻ѝ␫࣐ҶᵪՊᡀᵜ㘳䟿DŽ

                        䈕⨶䇪ᤷࠪˈਚᴹᖃᔰᡈⲴ亴ᵏ᭦⳺བྷҾਸ֌Ⲵ亴ᵏ᭦⳺ᰦˈഭᇦ᡽ާ༷ਁࣘᡈҹ
                        Ⲵਟ㜭ᙗDŽᡈҹᑖᶕ߰᭦⳺н޽ᱟഭᇦਁࣘᡈҹⲴݵ࠶ᶑԦDŽ   ਖаᯩ䶒ˈഭᇦ൘
                                                                                ĸ
                        亴ᵏ᭸⭘⁑රл㻛࡫⭫Ѫᴤཊൠ㘳㲁ᴤ䚕䘌Ⲵᵚᶕഐ㍐ሩҾᖃл࡙⳺䇑㇇Ⲵᖡ૽DŽ

                        ൘ᡈҹ▌൘ਁ䎧ഭⲴ亴ᵏѝˈሩ᡻ഭᇦⲴ᭯ㆆྲ㜭ᵍ⵰ᐡᯩᡰٿྭⲴᯩੁ䎻਼ˈࡉ
                        ഭᇦⲴᡈҹ᜿ᝯሶ㻛ᣁࡦDŽ
                                                  Ĺ
                            ُ⭘ঊᔸ䇪ѝⲴ䇘ԧ䘈ԧ⁑රˈ䍩Ֆᤷࠪˈྲ᷌ᡈҹৼᯩ䜭ᱟᆼޘ⨶ᙗ㹼Ѫփˈ
                        єഭᓄᖃ㜭ཏ൘߶⺞ࡔᯝᖬ↔ѻ䰤ᇎ࣋ሩ∄Ⲵส⹰кˈ䪸ሩ࡙⳺ᆈ䟿ࡦᇊਸ⨶Ⲵ࠶

                        䝽ᯩṸDŽٷ䇮ᡈҹ㔃᷌ѫ㾱ਆߣҾߢケৼᯩⲴᇎ࣋ሩ∄ˈ䛓Ѹᡈҹ㹼Ѫਚ㜭⭘ᶕ傼
                        䇱ᡈࡽ亴ࡔⲴ߶⺞ᙗˈতᰐ⌅᭩ਈᡈਾ࡙⳺࠶䝽Ⲵ∄ֻDŽᡈҹਈᡀҶᗂ໎ᡀᵜⲴվ
                        ᭸㹼ѪDŽ  䍩Ֆቍ䈅สҾ⨶ᙗѫѹሩᡈҹ䘉⿽ⴻլ䶎⨶ᙗⲴ㹼Ѫ䘋㹼䀓䟺ˈԆᤷࠪˈ
                                ĺ
                        нᆼޘؑ᚟ቔަᱟ࡫᜿ࡦ䙐Ⲵ䭉䈟ؑ᚟ԕ৺нਟ䶐᢯䈪ᱟሬ㠤ഭᇦ䰤ߢケⲴ䟽㾱
                        ৏ഐDŽ   ⴨䖳Ҿ亴ᵏ᭸⭘⨶䇪ˈ൘䍩ՖⲴ⨶䇪Ṷᷦлˈ㹼Ѫփੁᰦ䰤䖤Ⲵᴤ䘌ㄟᤃ
                              Ļ
                        ኅҶ䘋㹼⨶ᙗ䇑㇇ᰦᡰ⎹৺Ⲵᰦ䰤㿶䟾DŽᵚᶕ䱤ᖡᴤᕪൠᖡ૽ߢケߣㆆ㘵ᖃлⲴߣ
                        ㆆDŽ⴨䖳Ҿ亴ᵏ᭸⭘⨶䇪ਚ৲㘳ᡈਾ㔃᷌ˈতн㘳㲁ᡈਾᆹᧂⲴᢗ㹼ˈ䍩ՖⲴ⨶䇪

                        ࡉሶਾ㘵ҏ㓣ޕഭᇦ⨶ᙗ䇑㇇Ⲵ࠭ᮠѻѝDŽ
                            ㊫լⲴˈᰐ䇪ᱟᵳ࣋䖜〫ᡈҹ⨶䇪ǃ   亴䱢ᙗᡈҹ䇪ǃ   ݸਁࡦӪ⨶䇪ǃ   ཊ
                                                                              Ľ
                                                              ļ
                                                                                               ľ
                        澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
                            ķ  Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
                        1981, pp. 9-11.
                            ĸ  Bruce  Bueno  De  Mesquita,  “A  Critique  of  ‘A  Critique  of  the  War Trap’,”  The Journal  of
                        Conflict Resolution, Vol. 28, No. 2, 1984, p. 352; Michael Nicholson, “The Conceptual Bases of the
                        War Trap,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 31, No. 2, 1987, p. 347.
                            Ĺ  Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, The War Trap, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981, pp. 46-49.
                            ĺ  James D. Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization, Vol. 49,
                        No. 3, 1995, p. 380.
                            Ļ  ਼ṧᕪ䈳⿱ᴹؑ᚟ሬ㠤на㠤Ⲵᡈҹ亴ᵏ䘋㘼䈡ਁᡈҹⲴ⹄ウˈ৲㿱  Mark  Fey  and
                        Kristopher W. Ramsay, “Mutual Optimism and War,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 51,
                        No. 4, 2007, p. 738DŽ
                            ļ  A. F. K. Organski, World Politics, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1968, p. 333; A. F. K. Organski
                        and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1981, pp. 59-61.
                            Ľ  Paul  W.  Schroeder,  “Preventive  Wars  to  Restore  and  Stabilize  the  International  System,”
                        International Interactions, Vol. 37, No. 1, 2011, pp. 96-106; Jack S. Levy, “Preventive War: Concept
                        and Propositions,” International Interactions, Vol. 37, No. 1, 2011, pp. 87-96.
                            ľ  Jack S. Levy, “Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War,” World Politics, Vol.
                        40, No. 1, 1987, p. 105; Dan Reiter, “Exploding the Powder Keg Myth: Preemptive Wars Almost Never
                        Happen,” International Security, Vol. 20, No. 2, 1995, pp. 5-34.
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