Page 86 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期

߭ිྟ౰ӊაݓ࠽ᅞᆚ֥Ⴚؿ澳

ӂ ഔⓥᙝ≸ڵ䈧ਇള䱻ᡎҿⲺṮᗹᵰ࡬

䍩ՖⲴ⨶ᙗѫѹᡈҹᡀഐ䇪Ҁ㿲ൠᤷࠪˈ㜭ཏԔߢケৼᯩ਼ᰦ┑᜿Ⲵ઼䀓ᯩ
Ṹ൘㔍བྷ䜘࠶ᛵߥлᱟᆈ൘ⲴDŽ ❦㘼ˈ䈕⨶䇪亴䇮ᘭ㿶Ҷഭᇦ൘ᖬ↔ᇎ࣋ሩ∄ǃ
ķ
ߢケ᜿ᝯݵ࠶ᣛ䵢Ⲵᛵߥлˈӽ❦н䈳ᮤ㠚䓛ޣҾ࡙⳺࠶䝽Ⲵ䗷儈亴ᵏˈԕ㠣Ҿ
ࠪ⧠ৼᯩ਴㠚ඊᤱⲴ઼䀓ᯩṸнᆈ൘Ӕ䳶㘼ᰐ⌅઼䀓Ⲵ⧠䊑DŽᵜ᮷䇔Ѫˈ൘ка
䖞ߢケሩᣇⲴৼ䗩ঊᔸѝˈཡ䍕ᡆ㩭ਾⲴഭᇦѪ↔Ԉࠪ⢙䍘ᡆᰦ䰤ԓԧˈަ൘ਾ
㔝ӂࣘѝՊੁሩ᡻ራ≲⴨ሩ⢙䍘᭦⳺ᡆᰦ䰤Ո࣯ˈ↔ᰦׯࠪ⧠สҾ䗷৫㓿傼㘼䶎

ᵚᶕ亴ᵏⲴഎⓟᙗ≲گ㹼ѪˈަⴞⲴᰘ൘⺞؍䗷৫ᴮ㓿ཡ࡙Ⲵഭᇦ൘оሩ᡻䘋㹼
Ⲵਾ㔝ᡈ⮕ঊᔸѝ㠣ቁ㜭ཏ؍䇱㠚䓛᭦⳺оሩ᡻ᐢ㍟〟Ⲵ᭦⳺ᤱᒣDŽഭᇦ䟷ਆഎ
ⓟᙗ≲گ㹼Ѫ䈡ਁᡈҹⲴѫ㾱ᵪࡦवᤜ˖

δжε⴮ሯ᭬ⴀᮅ᝕фૂ䀙グ䰪䲆㕟
а㡜㘼䀰ˈᰒᖰৼ䗩ӂࣘѝ䲧ޕᤱ㔝ᙗሩᣇⲴഭᇦᡰ᢯ਇⲴᦏཡ䎺བྷˈ൘ᖃл
ѳ㠣ᵚᶕⲴӂࣘѝሩᇯ᭼䘋㹼എⓟᙗ≲گᰦᡰ༠㍒Ⲵ仍ᓖቡ䎺བྷDŽ↔ᰦˈєഭаᰖ
䲧ޕডᵪᛵຳˈ㜭ཏѪєഭᡰޡ਼᧕ਇⲴ઼䀓ᯩṸⲴӔ䳶ሶ㻛བྷབྷ䲀㕙DŽ

ᶠݻg䎛㡂᣹ਁ˄Jack Hirshleifer˅䇔Ѫ䲔ҶᵪՊо䇔⸕䘉єབྷ㾱㍐ཆˈٿྭ
਼ṧߣᇊ⵰ߢケৼᯩⲴ઼䀓ᯩṸⲴ४䰤བྷሿDŽণ֯ᱟ൘ৼᯩਸ֌㜭ཏ䗮ᡀᙫ᭦⳺
ᴰབྷǃৼᯩ਼ᰦ䇔⸕઼䀓ՈҾߢケⲴᛵߥлˈᖃৼᯩࠪ⧠ᚦ᜿ٿྭᰦˈৼᯩ൘ߢ

ケᰦⲴ▌൘઼䀓ᯩṸӔ䳶ቡਟ㜭བྷᑵ㕙ሿDŽ
ĸ
Ĺ
൘䎛㡂᣹ਁ⁑රⲴส⹰кˈሶഭᇦሩҾĀ⴨ሩ᭦⳺᭿ᝏā 㓣ޕ⁑රˈਟԕਁ
⧠ٿྭⲴ޽⅑؞↓ሶ䘋а↕㕙ሿߢケৼᯩ઼䀓ᯩṸⲴӔ䳶DŽਚ䴰ߢケৼᯩѝⲴаഭ
㺘⧠ࠪ⴨ሩ᭦⳺᭿ᝏˈᒦ䘭≲൘઼䀓ᯩṸѝਆᗇ⴨䖳Ҿሩᯩ㘼䀰ᴤབྷⲴ᭦⳺㘼ᤂ㔍

൷࠶᭦⳺˄ᙫ⾿࡙ᴰབྷⲴ൷㺑䀓˅ˈ↔ᰦৼᯩ઼䀓ᯩṸӔ䳶ቡሶ޽㕙ሿаॺDŽ䘉᜿
ણ⵰൘⧠ᇎⲴഭ䱵ߢケᇎ䐥ѝˈ৏ᵜቡᐢ㓿䲧ޕሩᣇ⣦ᘱǃᶴᔪ䎧᭼ሩޣ㌫Ⲵєഭ
ਚ㾱ᴹаഭ㺘⧠ࠪ⴨ሩ᭦⳺᭿ᝏˈߢケॷ㓗ᾲ⦷ሶབྷབྷᨀॷˈ㘼єഭ਼ᰦࠪ⧠⴨ሩ

澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ James D. Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization, Vol. 49,
No. 3, 1995, pp. 381-382.
ĸ ᶠݻg䎛㡂᣹ਁ˖lj࣋䟿Ⲵ䱤᳇䶒NJˈࡈ⎧䶂䈁ˈॾ༿ࠪ⡸⽮ 2012 ᒤ⡸ˈㅜ 32-34 亥DŽ
Ĺ 㓿ި䇪䘠ѝᴹޣ⴨ሩ᭦⳺ᖡ૽ഭᇦ㹼ѪⲴа㡜ᙗᵪࡦਟ৲㿱 Joseph M. Grieco, “Anarchy
and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism,” International
Organization, Vol. 42, No. 3, 1988, pp. 498-503DŽ澳
· 84 ·澳