Page 89 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期
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2023 ഐݾ 3 澳
䳮ԕ㻛ݸࡽঊᔸⲴཡ䍕㘵ᡰ᧕ਇDŽ
ķ
к䘠ഠຳ㔗㘼ሬ㠤༴Ҿᯠа䖞ሩᣇᛵᖒлⲴєഭത㔅ᴰᯠⲴ࡙⳺࠶䝽ӗ⭏
н਼Ⲵ䇔䇶ˈᒦ↔䇮㖞н਼Ⲵ৲➗⛩DŽ≲گഭ൘ᯠа䖞ঊᔸѝ㜭ཏӾሩ༴㧧ᗇ
Ⲵᮠ仍ᴹ䲀Ⲵ䇙࡙བྷᾲ⦷кн䏣ԕ֯≲گഭ㝡ᦏཡṶᷦDŽ⭡Ҿ㹼Ѫփሩᦏཡ઼᭦
⳺Ⲵ䘲ᓄ䙏ᓖᆈ൘ᐞ䐍ˈ㻛≲گഭণ֯สҾĀᵚᶕüޡ䎒āⲴᰦ䰤㿶䟾઼ᙍ㔤䙫䗁ˈ
ᝯ䇙ࠪᖃࡽঊᔸѝⲴ䜘࠶࡙⳺ԕ֯≲گഭ㧧ᗇᲲᰦⲴሩՈ࣯᭦⳺ˈնতᖸ䳮
ሩ≲گഭสҾĀ䗷৫üঅᯩᦏཡāⲴ㓿傼䇔⸕㘼ᖒᡀⲴഎⓟᙗ≲گᖒᡀ䇔਼DŽо↔
਼ᰦˈ㻛≲گഭতਟ㜭ሶк䘠ᴹ䲀䇙࡙Ѫᦞˈԕ↔ࡔᯝ≲گഭᐢ䘋ޕ㧧⳺⣦ᘱˈ
䘋㘼վՠ≲گഭⲴ仾䲙᧕ਇᓖˈᒦሶ≲گഭਟ㜭䟷ਆⲴ㔤ᵳ᧚ᯭᇊᙗѪᑖᴹ᭼Ⲵ
䘋᭫ᙗ㹼ѪDŽ 䘉䜘࠶ᵚ㜭൘≲گഭ઼㻛≲گഭѻ䰤䗮ᡀޡ䇶ⲴĀ䎵仍ā䎄گ䇹≲
ĸ
аᰖ䚝䙷ሩᯩᤂ㔍ˈ亴ᵏⲴ㩭オਟ㜭䈡֯≲گഭ䟷ਆᴤѪ◰䘋Ⲵ㹼ࣘㆆ⮕˗䘋㘼ˈ
ৼᯩ൘ডᵪ༴⨶Ⲵ䇘ԧ䘈ԧ䱦⇥ਟ㜭਼ᰦ䟷ਆᕪ⺜ㆆ⮕㘼֯ডᵪᘱ࣯㷪ॷ㓗DŽ
㔬кᡰ䘠ˈ䖳ഭᇦ൘儈᭯⋫亶ฏԕ৺ߢケᛵຳлᡰ⧠ⲴǃสҾᖃл৺ᵚᶕ
᭸⭘䇑㇇㘼ᖒᡀⲴሩ᭦⳺ᝏ˄а㡜ᛵຳ˅ˈഐ ᰒᖰ⊹⋑ᡀᵜᰐ᭸ॆ৺ަሬ
㠤Ⲵᡈ⮕࣓࣯ᢙབྷ㘼ӗ⭏Ⲵഎⓟᙗ≲گ㹼Ѫˈ൘⾰䍻᭸ᓄ৺Āᵚᶕü䗷৫ā䱤ᖡⲴ
ৼ䟽⭘лˈ׳֯ഭᇦ਼ᰦཨབྷᰒᴹᦏཡⲴԧ٬৺ަ䘎ᑖ࣓࣯ᢙབྷⲴᾲ⦷DŽഐ↔ˈ
എⓟᙗ≲گሶ䘋а↕࣐㹼Ѫփሩሩ᭦⳺Ⲵᝏᙗˈᶱབྷ䱽վ઼䀓Ⲵਟ㜭DŽ↔ཆˈ
⭡Ҿߢケৼᯩ䳮ԕቡสҾ⊹⋑ᡀᵜ㘼ӗ⭏Ⲵ≲گ䇹≲䗮ᡀޡᴹ䇔⸕ˈ䘋㘼ሬ㠤਼ᰦ
䈟ࡔሩᡰ༴ⲴߣㆆṶᷦˈվՠᖬ↔仾䲙ᣵᝯˈĀᚦॆāᖬ↔മDŽഎⓟᙗ
≲گⲴࠪ⧠ሶᴤਟ㜭ۜॆഭ䱵ߢケⲴॷ㓗ѳ㠣ᡈҹⲴ⠶ਁDŽ
п ഔⓥᙝ≸ڵⲺњ〃уੂ㺞⧦ᯯᕅ
ṩᦞ≲گⴞḷ㊫රⲴн਼ˈᵜ᮷ሶഭᇦഎⓟᙗ≲گ࠶Ѫєབྷ㊫DŽ ㅜа㊫എ
Ĺ
澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ Jack S. Levy, “Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations,” International
Studies Quarterly, Vol. 41, No. 1, 1997, p. 93.
ĸ Jack S. Levy, “Prospect Theory and International Relation: Theoretical Applications and
Analytical Problems,” Political Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1992, p. 288.
Ĺ Ր㔏⨶䇪ਚޣ⌘ࡠ⭡⢙䍘࡙⳺ᖒᡀⲴ⊹⋑ᡀᵜˈ㘼ᴤ䘁Ⲵ⹄ウࡉᤷࠪᰦ䰤ഐ㍐਼ṧਟ
㜭㻛ߣㆆ㘵㿶Ѫ⊹⋑ᡀᵜDŽ৲㿱 Dilip Soman, “The Mental Accounting of Sunk Time Costs: Why
Time Is Not Like Money,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2001, pp. 169-185;
Anton D. Navarro and Edmund Fantino, “The Sunk-Time Effect: An Exploration,” Journal of
Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2009, pp. 252-270DŽ
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