Page 84 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期

߭ිྟ౰ӊაݓ࠽ᅞᆚ֥Ⴚؿ澳

㊣䈪僘⡼ؑᘥ ѻ㊫ԕᛢ㿲亴ᵏǃ䎻࣯❖㲁ѪᡈҹࣘᵪⲴᡈҹᡀഐ⨶䇪ˈ䘈ᱟ䛓Ӌ
ķ
䇔ᇊҀ㿲亴ᵏ਼ṧ㜭ཏ䈡ਁᡈҹⲴ⴨ޣ⨶䇪ˈ ⨶ᙗѫѹᡈҹᡀഐ䇪Ր㔏кᲞ䙽ᴤ
ĸ
䟽㿶ᵚᶕഐ㍐৺⴨ᓄ亴ᵏ൘ഭᇦߢケⲴ⨶ᙗߣㆆ䇑㇇ѝᡰਁᥕⲴ䟽㾱֌⭘DŽ
ок䘠⨶䇪ሶ䎺ᶕ䎺ѠᇼⲴᵚᶕഐ㍐㓣ޕᡈҹ⨶ᙗߣㆆѝ⴨৽ˈ৽༽ডᵪ/
ߢケ⨶䇪઼ᤱ㔝ሩᣇ⨶䇪˄ㆰ〠Ā৽༽ߢケ/ᤱ㔝ሩᣇā˅ࡉᕪ䈳শਢӔᖰ㓿傼ˈ

ণ䗷৫ഐ㍐ሩҾᖃлߢケߣㆆⲴ䟽㾱ᙗDŽ↔㊫⹄ウᤷࠪˈ㓿ި⨶ᙗѫѹᡈҹᡀഐ
䇪䘉⿽ᵜ䍘кĀ৫শਢāⲴ⹄ウ䐟ᖴᘭ㿶⭡ᰒᖰӂࣘ㓿傼ᶴᔪ䎧Ⲵ㛼Ჟᙗഐ㍐ሩ
ҾഭᇦߢケߣㆆⲴᖡ૽ˈᇎ䱵кሶ⇿⅑ߢケߣㆆ䜭㿶Ѫа䖞ᯠⲴǃ䶒ੁᵚᶕⲴߣ
ㆆDŽ䘉㊫ᆖ䈤䳀ਜ਼⵰ٷ䇮˖ࡽਾডᵪѻ䰤нᆈ൘ޣ㚄ᙗˈ䗷৫ডᵪнՊሩᖃлড

ᵪӗ⭏ᖡ૽DŽ ❦㘼ˈ⢩ᇊᆹޘ༽ਸփ޵Ⲵ਴ഭһᇎкਟԕ㻛㿶Ѫ༴Ҿа䖞ᰐՁ
Ĺ
→Ⲵ䮯ᵏঊᔸѻѝDŽ䗷৫Ⲵӂࣘ㔃᷌нਟ䚯ݽൠᖡ૽⵰㹼ѪփⲴਾ㔝ӂࣘ⁑ᔿDŽ
ሶ䗷৫ഐ㍐䍜ᯕѪ䶎⨶ᙗഐ㍐ᒦሶަӾ⨶ᙗѫѹ⨶䇪ѝㆰॆࠪ৫ˈᰐ⳺Ҿݵ࠶⨶

䀓ഭᇦⲴߢケߣㆆDŽ
ѪݻᴽĀ৫শਢā⹄ウ䐟ᖴⲴ㕪䲧ˈ൘৽༽ߢケ/ᤱ㔝ሩᣇ⹄ウ䇞〻ᔰኅѻࡍˈ
ᆖ㘵㠤࣋Ҿ⺞ᇊ൘਼аሩഭᇦѻ䰤ࠪ⧠Ⲵ৽༽ߢケԕ৺䲿ѻᶴᔪࠪⲴᤱ㔝ሩᣇޣ
㌫⺞ᇎሩഭᇦᖃлⲴߢケӗ⭏Ҷᇎ䍘ᙗᖡ૽DŽ⹄ウਁ⧠ቭ㇑ᆈ൘⭡Ҿ㔏䇑ਓᖴн਼

㘼ሬ㠤Ⲵᮠᦞᐞᔲˈն⴨ޣ亶ฏⲴᆖ㘵Ԝབྷཊ਼᜿൘ᡰᴹ㻛㔏䇑Ⲵഭ䱵ߢケѝˈᴹ
нᡀ∄ֻⲴṸֻһᇎк৽༽ਁ⭏൘ቁᮠ⢩ᇊⲴ᭼ሩഭᇦѻ䰤DŽ ↔ཆˈаᰖḀሩഭ
ĺ
ᇦ䘋ޕᤱ㔝ሩᣇޣ㌫ѝˈৼ䗩ডᵪҏᴤᇩ᱃ॷ㓗Ѫ↖㻵ߢケѳ㠣ޘ䶒ᡈҹDŽ ഐ㘼ˈ
Ļ
⨶䇪䇔Ѫশਢкᴹ䗷ߢケ㓿শⲴ⺞֯ᗇഭᇦ൘ᵚᶕӂࣘᰦⲴߢケ᜿ᝯਈᕪDŽ

澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder, eds., Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Great
Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.
ĸ Dominic D. P. Johnson, Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions,
Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2004˗ᯟ㪲㣜g㤳gෳᕇ᣹˖ljᡈҹⲴ৏ഐ˖ᵳ࣋оߢケⲴ
ṩⓀNJˈօᴌ䈁ˈк⎧Ӫ≁ࠪ⡸⽮ 2007 ᒤ⡸ˈㅜ 17-32 亥DŽ
Ĺ Michael P. Colaresi and William R. Thompson, “Hot Spots or Hot Hands? Serial Crisis
Behavior, Escalating Risks, and Rivalry,” The Journal of Politics, Vol. 64, No. 4, 2002, p. 1176.
ĺ Michael Colaresi and William R. Thompson, “Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and
Crisis Escalation,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2002, p. 266˗Michael P. Colaresi and
William R. Thompson, “Hot Spots or Hot Hands? Serial Crisis Behavior, Escalating Risks, and Rivalry,”
The Journal of Politics, Vol. 64, No. 4, 2002, pp. 1189-1190; Zeev Maoz and Ben D. Mor, “Enduring
Rivalries: The Early Years,” International Political Science Review, Vol. 17, No. 2, 1996, p. 142.
Ļ Michael Colaresi and William R. Thompson, “Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and
Crisis Escalation,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2002, p. 271.
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