Page 85 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期
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2023 ഐݾ 3 澳
৽༽ߢケ/ᤱ㔝ሩᣇ⹄ウ䇞〻ⲴㅜҼњԫ࣑ᱟ᧒䇘䗷৫ਁ⭏Ⲵডᵪ˄ㆰ〠Āࡽ
൘ডᵪā˅仁⦷ǃ㇑⨶⇥ԕ৺㔃᷌ㅹഐ㍐ሩਾ㔝ডᵪ⠶ਁӗ⭏Ⲵᖡ૽DŽ⹄ウਁ⧠ˈ
ԕܥተ㔃ᶏⲴࡽ൘ডᵪᴰড䲙ˈ㘼а䶒قⲴ㔃᷌ҏᰐ⌅䇙ডᵪཡ䍕ᯩᖫᓅᢃ⎸⅑
ߢケⲴᝯDŽ ຎቄgՖṬ˄Russell J. Leng˅൘ਁኅ㖇՟⢩gᶠ㔤ᯟ˄Robert
ķ
Jervis˅শਢ㊫∄⨶䇪ⲴสкᨀࠪഭᇦᆖҐ䈤ˈ᰾⺞ᤷࠪˈᖃഭᇦо਼аሩഭ
䲧ޕㅜҼǃㅜй൪ডᵪᰦˈഭᇦӾশਢ㓿傼ѝ䘋㹼ᆖҐⲴࣘᵪՊਈᗇᕪ⛸䎧ᶕˈࡽ
ĸ
൘ডᵪᰦഭᇦ֯⭘Ⲵᕪࡦᙗ⇥ᴹ㻛ᕪॆਾ⅑֯⭘Ⲵਟ㜭ᙗDŽ ᙫѻˈаᰖ䘋ޕ
ᤱ㔝ᙗሩᣇޣ㌫ѝˈৼᯩⲴӂࣘׯ᱃Ҿ䲧ޕᚦᙗᗚ⧟ˈ৽༽ߢケᶴᔪ䎧Ⲵᤱ㔝ᙗሩ
ᣇޣ㌫䙊䗷啃࣡ഭᇦⲴ⅑ߢケ㺘⧠ࠪ㠚ᡁᕪॆ⢩䍘DŽ ↔ཆˈޣ⹄ウѻࡍˈࡽ
Ĺ
൘ডᵪሩਾ㔝ডᵪⲴᖡ૽㻛ᴤཊൠ⨶䀓Ѫа⿽ডᵪ䬮кⲴㆰঅⲴࡽਾՐሬޣ㌫DŽ䲿
⵰⹄ウⲴ␡ޕˈᆖ㘵Ԝਁ⧠൘ᤱ㔝ሩᣇޣ㌫Ⲵ⭏ભઘᵏˈ∄䈕ޣ㌫⭏ᡀⲴᵛᵏ
䱦⇥ˈަᰙᵏ䱦⇥ሩҾ䈕ޣ㌫Ⲵ㔤ᤱᴹ⵰ᴤ䟽㾱Ⲵᖡ૽DŽ
ĺ
৽༽ߢケ/ᤱ㔝ሩᣇ⹄ウⲴㅜйњԫ࣑ᱟቍ䈅ԕߣㆆ㘵ᰦ䰤㿶䟾Ⲵ䗷৫ㄟѪ࠷
ਓˈᤃኅ⹄ウ䇞〻DŽ䘉ᰐ⯁ᴹࣙҾӪԜᴤޘ䶒ൠ⨶䀓শਢᙗഐ㍐ሩ⧠ᰦᡈҹߣㆆⲴ
ᖡ૽DŽ❦㘼䘉⍮⹄ウ⮿Ҿ䀓䟺ࡽ൘ডᵪоਾ㔝ডᵪӂᖡ૽Ⲵ൘ഐ᷌ᵪࡦDŽቁᮠ
⹄ウ㘵ቍ䈅ሩ৽༽ߢケ/ᤱ㔝ሩᣇ⧠䊑䘋㹼䀓䟺Ⲵ⨶䇪ࡉ䇹䈨㓴㓷㹼Ѫㅹ⅑ഭᇦቲ
⅑ഐ㍐ˈᡆ༽ӷǃнؑԫᗳ⨶ㅹ䳮ԕॆⲴ㿲ᘥᙗਈ䟿ˈত⋑ᴹ䘋а↕䀓䟺к䘠
ਈ䟿ሬ㠤ߢケ৽༽ਁ⭏൘਼аሩഭᇦѻ䰤Ⲵާփᵪࡦˈᴤн㜭䀓䟺Ѫօ䛓Ӌ൘Ր㔏
⨶ᙗѫѹ⨶䇪ⴻᶕᴤᓄ䈕㻛᪂ᔳ൘⨶ᙗߣㆆ䗷〻ѻཆⲴǃਁ⭏ᒤԓᴤѪѵ䘌Ⲵডᵪ
һԦ৽㘼൘ᖃࡽⲴᡈҹߣㆆѝӛᴹᴤབྷⲴߣㆆᵳ䟽DŽ
Ѫ؞㺕к䘠⨶䇪ਟ㜭ᆈ൘Ⲵ㕪䲧ˈᵜ᮷ቍ䈅൘ᒯѹ⨶ᙗѫѹ㤳ᔿᶴᔪ⨶䇪ˈ
䈅മ䱀᰾ᡀѪ⊹⋑ᡀᵜⲴশਢӂࣘ㔃᷌ྲօᖡ૽Ѫঅа㹼ѪփⲴഭᇦ൘䘋㹼ߢ
ケߣㆆᰦⲴᦏཡṶᷦ䇮ᇊˈ䘋㘼䀓䟺Ѫᕕ㺕⢙䍘ᦏཡ઼ᰦ䰤㩭ਾ㘼ӗ⭏Ⲵഭᇦഎⓟ
ᙗ≲گ㹼Ѫ䈡ਁᡈҹⲴ൘ᵪࡦDŽ
澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ Joseph M. Grieco, “Repetitive Military Challenges and Recurrent International Conflicts,
1918-1994,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 45, No. 2, 2001, p. 310.
ĸ Russell J. Leng, “When Will They Ever Learn? Coercive Bargaining in Recurrent Crises,” The
Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 27, No. 3, 1983, p. 380.
Ĺ William R. Thompson, “Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics,” International
Studies Quarterly, Vol. 45, No. 4, 2001, p. 562.
ĺ Gary Goertz, Bradford Jones and Paul F. Diehl, “Maintenance Processes in International
Rivalries,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 5, 2005, pp. 747-748.
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