Page 88 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期

߭ිྟ౰ӊაݓ࠽ᅞᆚ֥Ⴚؿ澳

δӂεߨシਂᯯީӄᦕཧṼᷬⲺ䇚⸛㩳ᐤ
ᖃഭᇦᝏ⸕ࡠ൘਼ԆഭӔᖰⲴ䗷〻ѝӗ⭏Ⲵ⊹⋑ᡀᵜਟ㜭ᒦ⋑ᴹѪᵜഭਾ㔝਼Ԇ

ഭⲴㄎҹᑖᶕՈ࣯ˈ⭊㠣ሬ㠤࣓࣯ӗ⭏ᰦˈ⊹⋑ᡀᵜⲴᆈ൘ቡ᜿ણ⵰ഭᇦ䘋ޕҶߣㆆ
ⲴᦏཡṶᷦлDŽṩᦞࡽᲟ⨶䇪ᡰ࡫⭫ⲴᦏཡṶᷦл㹼Ѫփ᭸⭘ᴢ㓯ˈ ߣㆆ㘵ѪҶ
ķ
֯⊹⋑ᡀᵜ䟽ᯠਁᥕ֌⭘㘼䘭࣐ᣅޕⲴаᇊ䟿䍴Ⓚ˄ٷ䇮Ѫ X˅аᰖਆᗇ᭦⳺ˈަ

᭸⭘↓ੁ؞↓Ⲵᑵᓖ㾱䘌བྷҾᣅ䍴ཡ䍕ਟ㜭ሬ㠤Ⲵ᭸⳺߿ᦏⲴᑵᓖDŽ䘋㘼ˈṩᦞሩ
ᵪՊᡀᵜⲴ⨶ᙗ䇑㇇ˈᦏཡṶᷦл㹼ѪփሩҾ⊹⋑ᡀᵜⲴޣ⌘ѳ㠣ᱟ䗷ᓖޣ⌘ҏާ
༷Ҷ⨶ᙗส⹰ˈഭᇦഐ㘼൘ߣㆆᰦሶ㺘⧠ࠪ᰾ᱮⲴ仾䲙᧕ਇٮੁDŽ
ĸ
↔ཆˈṶᷦ৏⛩Ⲵ䭊ᇊᶱѪ䟽㾱ˈᆳᖡ૽⵰㹼Ѫփሩ䰞仈Ⲵ㺘ᖱᯩᔿˈ ޣѾ
Ĺ
ĺ
㹼Ѫփࡠᓅᱟሶ㠚ᐡ㖞Ҿᦏཡ䘈ᱟ᭦⳺ṶᷦѻлDŽ 䇔ᇊ㠚䓛༴ҾᦏཡṶᷦѻлⲴ
ഭᇦণ֯൘਼ԆഭⲴӂࣘѝ㧧ᗇҶаᇊ仍ᓖⲴ᭦⳺ˈᖸਟ㜭ਚᱟሶᯠ໎᭦⳺㺘ᖱѪ
ሩᰒᖰᦏཡⲴᕕ㺕ˈ㘼䶎ⵏ↓᜿ѹкⲴ㓟᭦⳺ˈ㘼ሩᯩᨀ׋Ⲵ䇙࡙ᖰᖰн䏣ԕ֯༴

ҾᦏཡṶᷦлⲴഭᇦ䘋ޕࡠ᭦⳺४䰤DŽ䙐ᡀঊᔸሩ᡻䇙࡙оഭᇦ≲گ亴ᵏѻ䰤㓿ᑨ
ᙗൠࠪ⧠㩭ᐞⲴ৏ഐᴹҼˈаᱟᦏཡü᭦⳺ṶᷦⲴ৏⛩㻛䭊ᇊ൘ሩߣㆆ㘵㘼䀰ᱟᴤ
Ѫ⨶ᜣⲴ⣦ᘱˈ㘼䶎⧠⣦DŽֻྲˈ൘ഭ䱵ߢケਾⲴа⇥ᰦ䰤䟼ˈїཡ亶൏Ⲵаᯩᖰ
ᖰԕ䗷৫Ⲵഭ൏⣦ᘱѪ৏⛩ˈ㘼⧠⣦Ⲵ㔤ᤱሶ㻛㿶Ѫа⿽ᤱ㔝ⲴᦏཡDŽ ↔ᰦ䘭≲
Ļ
⴨ሩՈ࣯᭦⳺Ⲵаᯩᖰᖰሶ㠚䓛㿶Ѫ⧠⣦㔤ᤱ㘵ˈᖃлⲴഎⓟᙗ≲گ㹼ѪᱟѪҶᚒ
༽ᐢ㓿㻛ሩᯩ⹤ൿⲴ⧠⣦DŽҼᱟ㻛≲گᯩࡉ䙊ᑨᰐ⌅ሩഎⓟᙗ≲گ㹼Ѫӗ⭏䇔਼ˈ
㘼ሶ㠚䓛㿶Ѫ⧠⣦㔤ᤱ㘵ˈഐ㘼ণ֯䟷ਆ䇙࡙㹼Ѫˈ䇙࡙Ⲵ仍ᓖҏ䖳Ѫᴹ䲀DŽ ަ
ļ
ѝⲴ৏ഐ൘Ҿ㹼Ѫփሩ᭦⳺Ⲵ䘲ᓄ࣋㾱བྷҾሩᦏཡⲴ䘲ᓄ࣋ˈ≲گᯩᴮ㓿ᦏཡⲴ⊹
⋑ᡀᵜᖸᘛՊ㻛㧧ਆ䈕䜘࠶࡙⳺Ⲵ㻛≲گഭ㿶Ѫ⧠⣦Ⲵа䜘࠶ˈ㘼䗷ᖰᦏཡতᑨᑨ
澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,”
Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, 1979, p. 279.
ĸ Robert Jervis, “Political Implications of Loss Aversion,” Political Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 2,
1992, p. 187.
Ĺ Eldar Shafir, “Prospect Theory and Political Analysis: A Psychological Perspective,” Political
Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1992, p. 314.
ĺ Jack S. Levy, “An Introduction to Prospect Theory,” Political Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1992,
p. 176; Eldar Shafir, “Prospect Theory and Political Analysis: A Psychological Perspective,” Political
Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1992, p. 315.
Ļ Robert Jervis, “Political Implications of Loss Aversion,” Political Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 2,
1992, p. 196.
ļ Jack S. Levy, “Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory
for International Conflict,” International Political Science Review, Vol. 17, No. 2, 1996, p. 190.
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