Page 87 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期

2023 ഐݾ 3 ඼澳

᭦⳺᭿ᝏࡉ઼䀓オ䰤Ӕ䳶⎸ཡˈߢケ⠶ਁнਟ䚯ݽDŽ
↔ཆˈок䘠а㡜ᛵຳлสҾ亴ᵏ᭦⳺㘼ӗ⭏Ⲵ⴨ሩ᭦⳺᭿ᝏн਼ˈ⊹⋑ᡀᵜ

ᰐ᭸ॆդ䲿Ⲵᦏཡ়ᚦՊᕅਁ⾰䍻᭸ᓄˈণ㹼Ѫփሩ㠚䓛ᤕᴹⲴ⢙૱䍻Ҹ䗷儈ՠ
ķ
٬ˈ㘼аᰖཡ৫䘉а⢙૱ਾˈՊᡀؽൠ㾱≲㺕گDŽ 䘉᜿ણ⵰㹼Ѫփаᰖሶ਼Ԇഭ
ᰒᖰӂࣘѝᣅޕⲴ⊹⋑ᡀᵜᇊᙗѪᦏཡᰦˈ㹼Ѫփሩ↔㊫Āᗇ㘼༽ཡāⲴ࡙⳺Ⲵѫ

㿲ᇊԧሶབྷҾަᇒ㿲ԧ٬DŽаᯩ䶒ˈሶሬ㠤䇔ᇊ㠚䓛㫉ਇᦏཡⲴഭᇦᇎ䱵кᡰ㜭᧕
ਇⲴ઼䀓ᯩṸབྷᑵᓖൠٿ⿫൷࠶᭦⳺Ⲵ൷㺑ս㖞˗ਖаᯩ䶒ˈሩ᡻ҏ䳮ԕ䇔਼ᦏཡ
ഭᡰ䇔ᇊⲴѫ㿲ԧ٬൘ᢓ䲔ᇒ㿲ԧ٬ਾᡰӗ⭏ⓒԧⲴਸ⨶ᙗDŽഐ㘼ˈ䖳ѻа㡜ᛵຳ
лത㔅▌൘᭦⳺亴ᵏӗ⭏Ⲵ⴨ሩ᭦⳺᭿ᝏˈ⭡䗷ᖰᦏཡ㓿傼㘼ᕅਁⲴ⴨ሩ᭦⳺᭿ᝏ
㕙ሿ⭊㠣⎸䲔ߢケৼᯩ઼䀓ᯩṸӔ䳶ⲴĀ㜭࣋āᴤᕪDŽ

о↔਼ᰦˈߢケৼᯩⲴҹཪⴞḷᱟ੖ާᴹਟ〟㍟ᙗо↓ੁⓒࠪ᭸ᓄˈҏᖡ૽⵰ഭ
ᇦഎⓟᙗ≲گ㹼ѪⲴᖒᡀоᕪॆDŽֻྲˈྲ᷌аඇۘ䟿Ѡ⋋фᤱ㔝ӗ⋩Ⲵ⋩⭠ᡆ㘵а
亩Ṩᗳᢰᵟу࡙ˈ㜭ཏѪަᤱᴹ㘵ᑖᶕᤱ㔝ᙗⲴ↓᭦⳺ˈ䛓Ѹഭᇦቔަᱟ⊹⋑ᡀᵜⲴ

᭟Ԉഭሩ⎹৺↔㊫䍴ӗⲴᗇཡ࠶䝽ሶਈᗇᴤѪ᭿ᝏDŽ ާᴹਟ〟㍟ᙗⲴᡈ⮕䍴ӗᖰᖰ
ĸ
䘈㜭ӗ⭏↓ੁⓒࠪ᭸ᓄˈ䲿⵰ㄎҹᰦ〻Ⲵᔦኅˈ↔㊫ᡈ⮕䍴ӗнӵ㜭ཏᑞࣙᤱᴹᯩᢙ
བྷ⴨ሩՈ࣯ˈ਼ᰦ䘈ሶሩㄎҹሩ᡻䇮㖞ਁኅ໱ෂˈ䘋㘼֯ᗇㄎҹৼᯩѻ䰤ࠪ⧠傜ཚ᭸
Ĺ
ᓄˈ䘋а↕ᢙབྷᡈ⮕䍴ӗᤱᴹ㘵઼ᦏཡ㘵Ⲵᇎ࣋ᐞ䐍DŽ ഐ↔ˈаᰖሶ䗷ᖰᦏཡⲴ䍴
ӗ䇶࡛ᡆᔪᶴѪᡈ⮕䍴ӗˈࡉഭᇦ൘ത㔅↔㊫ᡈ⮕䍴ӗ㘼ኅᔰⲴਾ㔝ㄎҹѝⲴഎⓟᙗ

≲گ㹼Ѫሶ㺘⧠ᗇṬཆ᰾ᱮˈ৏ഐ൘Ҿ↔ᰦⲴєഭ䰤ӂࣘᯩᔿ㻛䗷ᖰߢケⲴ㓿傼৺ሩ
ᵚᶕߢケⲴؑᘥ਼ᰦᖒກˈ ഭᇦത㔅ᡈ⮕䍴ӗⲴਟ㍟〟ᙗо↓ੁⓒࠪ᭸ᓄ㘼ᖒᡀⲴ
ĺ
ᵚᶕ亴ᵏˈሶ֌Ѫᵚᶕ䱤ᖡ৽֌⭘Ҿഭᇦሩ䗷৫⊹⋑ᡀᵜᦏཡⲴ䇔⸕઼䇴ՠˈ֯ަٮ

ੁҾ儈ՠᡈ⮕䍴ӗѪㄎҹሩ᡻ᨀ׋ⲴՈ࣯ԕ৺㠚䓛䗷ᖰⲴᦏཡ〻ᓖDŽᖃ䘉⿽㻛儈ՠⲴ
⊹⋑ᡀᵜᦏཡ֌ѪĀ䗷৫䱤ᖡāᣅሴ㠣ᖃлⲴߣㆆ䇑㇇ѝᰦˈнӵ࣐ࢗᡈ⮕❖㲁ˈҏ
ۜ⭏ഭᇦ൘⧠лㄎҹѝ䟷ਆഎⓟᙗ≲گ㹼ѪˈণԱമ䙊䗷ᖃлⲴ仍ཆ㺕گԕ䱫→ഐᰒ
ᖰᡈ⮕䍴ӗᦏཡ㘼ሬ㠤Ⲵᇎ࣋ᐞ䐍䘋а↕ᢙབྷⲴ䎻࣯DŽ

澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ Jack S. Levy, “Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory
for International Conflict,” International Political Science Review, Vol. 17, No. 2, 1996, p. 182.
ĸ ᯟ㪲㣜g㤳gෳᕇ᣹˖ljᡈҹⲴ৏ഐ˖ᵳ࣋оߢケⲴṩⓀNJˈօᴌ䈁ˈк⎧Ӫ≁ࠪ⡸⽮ 2014
ᒤ⡸ˈㅜ 130-131 亥DŽ
Ĺ Jeffrey Ding and Allan Dafoe, “The Logic of Strategic Assets: From Oil to AI,” Security
Studies, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2021, pp. 192-193.
ĺ Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1978,
p. 192.
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