Page 92 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期
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߭ිྟӊაݓ࠽ᅞᆚ֥Ⴚؿ澳
ᇣഭⲴ࡙⳺䇹≲᱃Ҿᗇࡠ࣐ᇣഭⲴ┑䏣DŽ൘Ӕ䭉⛩ѻਾˈ࣐ᇣഭⲴ䓛ԭ䇔਼࣐䙏䀓
ᶴDŽ㘼ਇᇣഭⲴਇᇣഭ䓛ԭ䇔਼ᒦᵚ਼↕⎸䀓ˈࡉєഭӗ⭏Ҷ䇔਼㩭ᐞ⧠䊑˄ᯌ㓯
䱤ᖡ䜘࠶˅DŽᖡ૽䓛ԭ䇔਼ᶴᔪⲴᶑԦ L ࠪ⧠ਾˈৼᯩⲴ䓛ԭӂࣘᆈ൘䓛ԭ䇔਼㩭
ᐞᢙབྷ˄⭡ BA ᡰസᇊⲴᯌ㓯䱤ᖡ䶒〟ᢙབྷ㠣⭡ B’A ᡰസᇊⲴᯌ㓯䱤ᖡ䶒〟ˈ৲㿱
മ 1 ᐖл˅о䓛ԭ䇔਼ॿ䈳˄ᵜ⭡ BA ᡰസᇊⲴᯌ㓯䱤ᖡ䶒〟⎸ཡˈਆ㘼ԓѻѪ
⭡ A’ B’ᡰസᇊⲴ⛩䱤ᖡ䶒〟ˈ৲㿱മ 1 ਣл˅є⿽ਈॆਟ㜭ᙗDŽ
аᰖᖃһഭ൘ᐕާ⨶ᙗ᭟䝽лˈ࡙⭘ਇᇣ㘵䓛ԭ൘ഭᇦӔᖰ䗷〻ѝራ≲എ
ⓟᙗ㺕گ⊹⋑ᡀᵜᦏཡˈࡉሶӪѪ֯䓛ԭ䇔਼ᴢ㓯ⲴĀ㺠ਈā䗷〻ᔦ㕃ˈަ㔃᷌ᱟ
єഭⲴ䓛ԭ䇔਼㩭ᐞሶ໎བྷ˄ণᯌ㓯䱤ᖡ䜘࠶䶒〟໎བྷ˅ˈਇᇣഭሩĀ࣐ᇣഭࠪ
䎄گǃ䇙↕ㅹ䶎ᒣㅹӂ࡙㹼ѪāⲴ亴ᵏ໎࣐ˈ㘼к䘠亴ᵏ㩭オⲴਟ㜭ᙗҏ䲿ѻ໎࣐DŽ
ᴰ㓸ˈഐਇᇣ㘵ǃ࣐ᇣ㘵䓛ԭ䀓ᶴⲴ䙏ᓖн਼↕㘼ӗ⭏Ⲵ䓛ԭ䇔਼㩭ᐞሶሬ㠤ਇᇣ
㘵䓛ԭⲴᤱᴹ㘵䚝䙷䓛ԭ㭁㿶ˈ ≲گ䇹≲䳮ԕ㻛┑䏣Ⲵഭᇦ㔗㘼ሶ䚥ᗚࡽ᮷ᡰ䘠
ķ
ⲴєབྷṨᗳᵪࡦ㘼ӗ⭏ߢケٿྭDŽ
δӂεਇݾ㠩Ⲻᡎ⮛䇿≸
ㅜҼ㊫എⓟᙗ≲گ㹼Ѫത㔅ᰦ䰤䍴Ⓚኅᔰˈケࠪ㺘⧠Ѫѫ㿲䇔ᇊ俆ݸ㹼ࣘᡆ䘋
᭫ᙗㆆ⮕ঐՈⲴഭᇦ൘ᡈ⮕ㄎҹᡆㆆ⮕ሩᣇѝˈ䘭≲ਾਁݸ㠣DŽՐ㔏㿲⛩䇔Ѫˈഭ
ᇦ൘ᡈ⮕ㄎҹѳ㠣ডᵪ㇑⨶ᵏ䰤ྲ᷌䇔ᇊ᭫䱢ᒣ㺑ੁ䘋᭫ᯩٮᯌᰦˈᖰᖰ䘭≲ݸࣘ
Ո࣯ˈ䘋㘼䟷ਆݸਁࡦӪᔿᢃࠫᡆਁࣘ亴䱢ᙗᡈҹDŽնയҾ䈨ཊᶑԦ䲀ࡦˈഭᇦ൘
ᡈ⮕ㄎҹǃডᵪ㇑⨶ѳ㠣ਁࣘᡈҹⲴߣᇊᙗޣཤˈᴹᰦ৸㻛䘛᭮ᔳݸࣘᵳ࡙DŽֻྲˈ
ਇࡦҾഭ䱵㿴㤳ˈ䟷⭘ݸਁࡦӪᔿⲴߋһᢃࠫᡆнᇓ㘼ᡈਟ㜭䴰㾱Ԉࠪᶱ儈Ⲵᡈ⮕
ԓԧDŽ൘↔⿽ᛵߥлˈഭᇦ䘈ᜣ㔗㔝ӛਇݸࣘՈ࣯ᑖᶕⲴ᭦⳺ቡᗵ享ਾਁ㘼ࡦˈ࣋
ҹᇎ⧠ᡈ⮕ㄎҹ൘ᰦ䰤㔤ᓖкⲴ䎦䎵DŽ䘉а䗷〻ҏᱟ㹼Ѫփቍ䈅֯ᰦ䰤⊹⋑ᡀᵜᣅ
䍴᭸⳺ᴰབྷॆⲴ䗷〻DŽ
Ѫᥭഎࡽᵏᰦ䰤ᦏཡⲴഎⓟᙗ≲گ㹼Ѫᰐ⯁ሶԕḀӋᯩ䶒Ⲵ࡙⳺Ѫԓԧᦒਆ
ㄎҹ᭸⦷Ⲵ仍ཆᨀॷˈߢケॷ㓗Ⲵ仾䲙ҏ䲿ѻ㘼ᶕDŽ䴰㾱⌘Ⲵᱟˈᰦ䰤ഐ㍐ᱮ⧠
⊹⋑ᡀᵜ᭸ᓄ䴰㾱ᗳ⨶䍖ᡧⲴᔪ・DŽ ᰦ䰤ᗵ享઼䍴䠁ᡆ⧠ᇎ࡙⳺ᖒᡀ᰾⺞Ⲵሩᓄ
ĸ
澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ ᴮੁ㓒˖ljഭ䱵ޣ㌫ѝⲴ㭁㿶о৽ᣇüüഭᇦ䓛ԭ㊫රо䇔ᯇҹㆆ⮕NJˈljц⭼㓿⍾о᭯
⋫NJ2015 ᒤㅜ 5 ᵏˈㅜ 127-136 亥DŽ
ĸ Anton D. Navarro and Edmund Fantino, “The Sunk-Time Effect: An Exploration,” Journal of
Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2009.
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