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族群战争的爆发：一个广义理论

①
机制。 而从定性研究（比较案例研究）看，许多特定的族群战争理论仅仅着眼于
某些因素和因果机制。因此，这些研究不仅缺乏系统综合，而且研究族群战争的学
者还常常倾向于一些因素和机制，而忽视另外一些因素和机制，仿佛他们所青睐的

这些因素和机制就足以充分解释族群战争的复杂性，而且这些不同的因素和机制之
②
间毫无交互作用。 简而言之，族群战争研究缺乏一个广义理论。事实上，罗杰斯·布
鲁贝克（Rogers Brubaker）和戴维·莱廷（David D. Laitin）就暗示族群战争研究可

③
以有一个广义理论。
本文认为，导致这一现状的关键原因在于，学者们还未找到一种恰当的、能够
把大部分因素和机制进行统合的工具。因此，本文尝试提出这样一种解决问题的方
④
案，在批判前人所做的理论性综合尝试的基础之上， 通过采用两个分析性创新手
段，向探求族群战争的普适性的广义理论迈出关键的几步。首先，大部分现有研究
都是先从因素出发进行研究的，而本文则是先从机制着手。具体说来，运用两个驱

① Andreas Wimmer, Lars-Erik Cederman and Brian Min, “Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A
Configurational Analysis of A New Global Dataset,” American Sociological Review, Vol. 74, No. 2
(April 2009), pp. 316-337. 本文将“机制”定义为：（1）机制是社会系统中推动改变或维持现状
的真实过程。（2）机制和因素的交互作用推动社会体系产生一定结果，因而机制和因素相互依存。
此定义的前半部分参见 Mario Bunge, “Mechanisms and Explanation,” Philosophy of the Social
Sciences, Vol. 27, No. 4 (December 1997), pp. 410-465；后半部分是笔者自己的创新。后半部分对
于理解机制和因素是如何交互、通过设计方法论发掘新的机制和因素二者而言，都至关重要。详
细探讨请见 Tang Shiping, “Factors and Mechanisms in Social Sciences: From Ontology to
Epistemology,” Manuscript in progress; Tang Shiping, “Uncovering Mechanisms: Toward a New
Methodology,” Manuscript in progress。
② Arman Grigoryan, “Correspondence: Hate Narratives and Ethnic Conflict,” International
Security, Vol. 31, No. 4 (Spring 2007), pp. 180-191.
③ Rogers Brubaker and David D. Laitin, “Ethnic and Nationalist Violence,” Annual Review of
Sociology, Vol. 24, No. 1 (November 2003), pp. 423-452; Stuart J. Kaufman, Modern Hatred: the
Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War, Ithaca, N. Y.: Cornell University Press, 2001; Nicholas Sambanis, “Do
Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part
1),” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 45, No. 3 (June 2001), pp. 259-282.
④ James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, “Violence and the Social Construction of Ethnic
Identity,” International Organization, Vol. 54, No. 4 (Autumn 2000), pp. 845-877; Donald L. Horowitz,
Ethnic Groups in Conflict, Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985; Donald L. Horowitz, Deadly
Ethnic Riots, Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001; Stuart J. Kaufman, “Symbols, Frames,
and Violence: Studying Ethnic War in the Philippines,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 55, No. 4
(December 2011), pp. 937-958; Roger D. Petersen, Understanding Ethnic War: Fear, Hatred,
Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002;
Nicholas Sambanis, “Using Case Studies to Expand Economic Models of Civil War,” Perspectives on
Politics, Vol. 2, No. 2 (June 2004), pp. 259-279.
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