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2018 年第 4 期

一 问题的提出

1945 年以来，国内战争比国际战争爆发得更加频繁，也带来了更具破坏性的
后果，同时，超过半数的国内战争是由族群问题而非阶级或意识形态问题引发的。

因此，族群国内战争（ethnic civil war，后文简称“族群战争”）作为国内战争的一
种特殊形式，很自然地成为了社会科学中最引人注目的一个研究领域，现已产生大
①
量研究文献，而且未来还会有更多的著述涌现出来。
②
但是，学界对族群战争的研究仍存在一些问题， 其中较为突出的一点是，随
着研究领域的不断扩大，我们的研究已经变得极其碎片化。从定量研究看，族群战
争或者族群和平似乎与某些因素相关，但我们的定量研究往往未能揭示其中的因果

① 笔者所谓的“族群战争”指的是两族群间有组织的暴力冲突，其中一方派军队或者至少
派民兵组织参战，而且战争总体伤亡人数达到 1 000 人的临界点。因此族群战争是一种更为血腥
的族群暴力，涵盖族群争斗、族群暴乱和种族灭绝等形式。前人的概念梳理请见 Donald L.
Horowitz, Deadly Ethnic Riots, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2001; Nicholas Sambanis,
“Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry
(Part 1),” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 45, No. 3 (June 2001), pp. 259-282。
② 较早的批判性评述可参见 Christopher Blattman and Edward Miguel, “Civil War,” Journal of
Economic Literature, Vol. 48, No. 1 (January 2010), pp. 3-57; Rogers Brubaker and David D. Laitin,
“Ethnic and Nationalist Violence,” Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 24, No. 1 (November 2003),
pp. 423-452; Shale Horowitz, “Mapping Pathways of Ethnic Conflict Onset: Preferences and Enabling
Conditions,” Ethnopolitics, Vol. 7, No. 2-3 (June 2008), pp. 307-320; Stathis N. Kalyvas, “Promises
and Pitfalls of an Emerging Research Program: The Microdynamics of Civil War,” in Stathis N.
Kalyvas, Ian Shapiro and Tarek Masoud, eds., Order, Conflict, Violence, Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2008, pp. 397-421; Nicholas Sambanis, “Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have
the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part 1),” Journal of Conflict Resolution,
Vol. 45, No. 3 (June 2001), pp. 259-282; Nicholas Sambanis, “Using Case Studies to Expand Economic
Models of Civil War,” Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 2, No. 2 (June 2004), pp. 259-279; Sidney G.
Tarrow, “Inside Insurgencies: Politics and Violence in an Age of Civil War,” Perspectives on Politics,
Vol. 5, No. 3 (September 2007), pp. 587-600; Robin M. Williams, Jr., “The Sociology of Ethnic
Conflict: Comparative International Perspectives,” Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 20, No. 1
(November 2003), pp. 49-79; Andreas Wimmer, Lars-Erik Cederman and Brian Min, “Ethnic Politics
and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of A New Global Dataset,” American Sociological
Review, Vol. 74, No. 2 (April 2009), pp. 316-337，等等。
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