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族群战争的爆发：一个广义理论

理论家的立场，他们认为族群战争和非族群战争之间不存在实质性差异。如，芭芭
拉·沃尔特（Barbara Walter）就说过，“所有参战者都是出于相同的成本计算，无
①
论其族群隶属或身份为何。”
第二，我们假定一些族群身份认同已经形成并可操控。换言之，本文事先承认
了某些族群分化是既定的，它们通常是由语言、宗教或种族差异造成的。就定义来
②
说，族群战争仅可能存在于多族群国家。 尽管这样做有些具化（reify）族裔概念
的意味，但是这样能够避免卷入探讨族群身份认同和民族主义建构的不同方法的论
争之中。 同大多数族群战争的学者一样，本文坚持认为族群身份认同（或族群划
③
分）是族群战争爆发的必要不充分条件。因此，本文是从一种修正的具有现代主义
特征（modernism-informed）的工具主义和建构主义立场出发，认为（硬和软的）

① Barbara F. Walter, Committing to Peace: The Success Settlement of Civil Wars, Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 89. 亦可见 James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, “Explaining
Interethnic Cooperation,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 90, No. 4 (December 1996),
pp. 715-735; David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, “Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of
Ethnic Conflict,” International Security, Vol. 21, No. 2 (Fall 1996), pp. 41-75. 评论可参见 Chaim D.
Kaufmann, “Rational Choice and Progress in the Study of Ethnic Conflict: A Review Essay,” Security
Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1 (September 2005), pp. 178-207; Andreas Wimmer, “The Making and Unmaking
of Ethnic Boundaries: A Multi-Level Process Theory,” American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 113, No. 4
(January 2008), pp. 970-1022; Andreas Wimmer, Waves of War: Nationalism, State Formation, and
Ethnic Exclusion in the Modern World, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013; Andreas
Wimmer, Lars-Erik Cederman and Brian Min, “Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational
Analysis of A New Global Dataset,” American Sociological Review, Vol. 74, No. 2 (April 2009),
pp. 316-337。
② Nicholas Sambanis, “Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A
Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part 1),” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 45, No. 3 (June
2001), pp. 259-282; Nicholas Sambanis, “What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical
Complexities of An Operational Definition,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 6
(December 2004), pp. 814-858.
③ 比如，关于原生主义还是工具主义，抑或是建构主义的论争；近年综述研究请见 James D.
Fearon and David D. Laitin, “Violence and the Social Construction of Ethnic Identity,” International
Organization, Vol. 54, No. 4 (Autumn 2000), pp. 845-877; John A. Hall, ed., The State of the Nation:
Ernest Gellner and Theory of Nationalism, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998; Anthony
Smith, Nationalism and Modernism, London: Routledge, 1998。
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