Page 138 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第2期

գ೐ྟ൪࢘༯గީэ߄აВ৯Ԋ๬֥Ԯ֝ࠏᇅฐ࣮

何影响冲突的，目前讨论得比较多的包括因果关系、威胁倍增器话语以及复杂互动
关系。
（一）气候变化影响暴力冲突的因果关系模式

因果机制是气候变化与冲突相关文献中讨论得最多的一种模式，主要包含两种
因果逻辑路径。第一种是直接因果联系，即气候变化通过直接的物理因素、心理因素
来增加冲突的可能性。这些研究集中讨论气候指标，如极端高温、干旱、降水减少或

极端气候事件与冲突之间的联系。 有的学者提出自然灾害可能会增加国内冲突的
①
持续时间。 有的学者认为，气候变化是苏丹达尔富尔危机的驱动因素，而脆弱的
②
治理结构和粗放的生产方式是酿成危机的内在动力。 ③ 第二种是间接因果联系，认
为气候变化导致资源稀缺 、环境退化 、粮食价格升高 、移民增加 ，进而间接
④
⑦
⑤
⑥
地引发冲突。例如在不利的气候条件下，较高的温度、较低的降水或极端天气事件会

① Solomon M. Hsiang, Kyle C. Meng and Mark A. Cane, “Civil Conflicts Are Associated with the
Global Climate,” Nature, Vol. 476, No. 7361, 2011; Marshall B. Burke et al., “Warming Increases the
Risk of Civil War in Africa,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. 49, 2009;
Nils Petter Gleditsch et al., “Conflicts over Shared Rivers: Resource Scarcity or Fuzzy Boundaries?”
Political Geography, Vol. 25, No. 4, 2006; Jean-François Maystadt, Margherita Calderone and Liangzhi
You, “Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan,” Journal of Economic Geography,
Vol. 15, No. 3, 2015; Hanne Fjelde and Nina von Uexkull, “Climate Triggers: Rainfall Anomalies,
Vulnerability and Communal Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Political Geography, Vol. 31, No. 7, 2012;
Carol R. Ember et al., “Rain and Raids Revisited: Disaggregating Ethnic Group Livestock Raiding in the
Ethiopian-Kenyan Border Region,” Civil Wars, Vol. 16, No. 3, 2014.
② Ramesh Ghimire and Susana Ferreira, “Floods and Armed Conflict,” Environment and
Development Economics, Vol. 21, No. 1, 2016.
③ 李岩、王礼茂：《从达尔富尔危机透视气候变化下的生态冲突》，《西亚非洲》2008 年第 6
期，第 6 页。
④ Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, “Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from
Cases,” International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1994.
⑤ Jon Barnett and W. Neil Adger, “Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict,”
Political Geography, Vol. 26, No. 6, 2007; Philippe Le Billon, “The Political Ecology of War: Natural
Resources and Armed Conflicts,” Political Geography, Vol. 20, No. 5, 2001.
⑥ Cullen S. Hendrix and Idean Salehyan, “Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa,”
Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 49, No. 1, 2012; Sylvain Chassang and Gerard Padró i Miquel,
“Economic Shocks and Civil War,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2009.
⑦ Vally Koubi et al., “The Role of Environmental Perceptions in Migration Decision-Making:
Evidence from Both Migrants and Non-Migrants in Five Developing Countries,” Population and
Environment, Vol. 38, No. 2, 2016; Rikhil R. Bhavnani and Bethany Lacina, “The Effects of Weather-
Induced Migration on Sons of the Soil Riots in India,” World Politics, Vol. 67, No. 4, 2015.

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