Page 151 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第2期

2023 年第 2 期

这可能会引发人民对政府的抗议，从而产生暴力冲突发生的隐患。
①
社会族群矛盾加剧。气候变化导致的资源稀缺会加剧原有的社会矛盾，尤其是
不同族群或不同宗教群体之间的矛盾。 当一些群体对于明显的社会问题，如种族
②
或宗教问题表达不满时，群体之间发生暴力的可能性就会提高。 在环境资源稀缺
③
的情况下，基于相对收益的群体间竞争及矛盾可能会增加。例如，在尼日尔的塔瓦
和埃塞俄比亚的甘贝拉，种族群体之间对于资源的争夺有时会演变成暴力事件。
④
气候移民对冲突的影响。气候变化可能导致大批人逃离家园， 大量环境移民
⑤
的涌入很可能给接收地区的经济和资源带来负担，且在移民过程中的食物与水资源
的缺乏可能会加剧各方对于稀缺资源的争夺，进而导致冲突。 例如，2007—2010
⑥
年的干旱引发的国内移民，成为叙利亚暴力冲突爆发的一个重要因素。
⑦
大国军事对立。气候变化导致的北极航道开辟将使北极地区资源争夺进一步升
级，尤其是在大国之间。俄罗斯在《2035 年前俄罗斯联邦北极国家基本政策》中提
出，要加强北极武装部队实力，用最先进的战争手段武装区域部队，从而有效维护

俄罗斯在北极地区的军事安全。 同时，美国发布新版《北极地区国家战略》报告，
⑧

① Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Political Succession: A Model of Coups,
Revolution, Purges, and Everyday Politics,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 61, No. 4, 2016.
② Lyal S. Sunga, “Does Climate Change Worsen Resource Scarcity and Cause Violent Ethnic
Conflict?” International Journal on Minority and Group Rights, Vol. 21, No. 1, 2014.
③ Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, “Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from
Cases,” International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1994.
④ Anita Milman and Yacob Arsano, “Climate Adaptation and Development: Contradictions for
Human Security in Gambella, Ethiopia,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 29, 2014; Julie Snorek,
Fabrice G. Renaud and Julia Kloos, “Divergent Adaptation to Climate Variability: A Case Study of
Pastoral and Agricultural Societies in Niger,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 29, 2014.
⑤ Vally Koubi et al., “The Role of Environmental Perceptions in Migration Decision-Making:
Evidence from Both Migrants and Non-Migrants in Five Developing Countries,” Population and
Environment, Vol. 38, No. 2, 2016.
⑥ Michael Brzoska and Christiane Fröhlich, “Climate Change, Migration and Violent Conflict:
Vulnerabilities, Pathways and Adaptation Strategies,” Migration and Development, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2016;
Rafael Reuveny, “Climate Change-Induced Migration and Violent Conflict,” Political Geography,
Vol. 26, No. 6, 2007.
⑦ Peter H. Gleick, “Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria,” Weather, Climate,
and Society, Vol. 6, No. 3, 2014.
⑧ Nazrin Mehdiyeva, “Strategy of Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and
the Provision of National Security for the Period to 2035,” Document Review, June 2021,
https://www.ndc.nato.int/research/research.php?icode=703#.

· 149 ·