Page 48 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期
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ݓ࠽ഠ߶ؓಆ౯νಆӐၰ֥؟ᇗಪᆩაᇏݓ֥ࣉҦ澳
ᨀ䇞āˈᆳѪᯠ勌һ⢙઼བྷ㛶ቍ䈅ᗵ❦Պਇࡠཊᯩ䶒Ⲵ䀓䈫઼ᇑ㿶ˈ䘉ᱟ⭡ّ
䇞Ⲵ⏥о⢩ᖱᡰߣᇊⲴDŽаӋഭᇦᖃࡽਁ䎧Ⲵّ䇞ҏ䜭ਇࡠ㖾ഭⲴ䍘⯁DŽ∄ྲˈ
Ѽݻޠডᵪਾˈ⌅ഭᙫ㔏傜ݻ嗉ᨀࠪᡀ・Ā⅗⍢᭯⋫ޡ਼փāّ䇞ˈо㖾ഭ؍ᤱ
аᇊ䐍ˈ䟽ກ⅗⍢㠚ѫᙗˈᢝ䖜⅗⍢൘༴⨶䟽བྷഭ䱵䰞仈кⲴ㻛ࣘተ䶒ˈն䘉
аّ䇞㻛㖾ഭ㠶䇪䇔Ѫਁᥕオ䰤ᴹ䲀ˈᴹᡈ㖾ഭ䵨ᵳ઼े㓖ѫሬⲴമDŽ ѝ
ķ
ഭⲴĀаᑖа䐟āّ䇞ᨀࠪਾˈаӋഭᇦᣵᗳᡀѪѝഭ㓿⍾кⲴ䎆ഭˈ䘈ᴹഭ
ᇦᣵᗳѝഭُĀаᑖа䐟ā⭘ѝഭỖĀ㔁ᷦāަԆഭᇦDŽ㖾ഭㅹ㾯ᯩഭᇦᴤᱟ㔉
Āаᑖа䐟āّ䇞䍤кĀ哴⾨ေ㛱䇪āĀᯠ⇆≁ѫѹāĀൿ⧟ຳ䇪ā઼Ā᧐ཪ䍴
Ⓚ䇪āㅹḷㆮDŽ
ޘ⨳ᆹޘّ䇞оа㡜ّ䇞н਼⛩൘Ҿˈ䘉аّ䇞㚊❖ᆹޘ䇞仈ˈѫᵳᆹޘǃ᭯
ᵳᆹޘ༷ਇഭޣ⌘ˈҾ儈᭯⋫亶ฏDŽ㾯ᯩᆹޘ⹄ウᖰᖰᢺᆹޘ䀓䈫Ѫаᡈ⮕
⹄ウˈޣ⌘ߋһᵳ࣋Ⲵঐᴹ઼֯⭘ˈԕ㧧ᗇ㠚䓛Ⲵ㔍ሩ᭯⋫ᖡ૽઼࡙⳺DŽ ѪҶݽ
ĸ
䲔нਟ᧕ਇⲴডᇣ仾䲙ˈ䗮ࡠĀ⋑ᴹေ㛱ǃড䲙઼ᦏཡāⲴ㔍ሩᆹޘ઼⤜ӛᆹޘˈ
㾯ᯩᖰᖰаᆔ㹼ǃᚓᒢ⎹ǃ㋇᳤㹼һDŽྲ᷌䈤㾯ᯩഭᇦሩҾѝഭᨀࠪⲴޘ⨳ਁ
ኅّ䇞Ⲵᘱᓖ〽ᱮ઼Ⲵ䈍ˈ䛓Ѹഐ൘Ҿਁኅ䇞仈Ⲵվ᭯⋫ᙗˈ㘼ޘ⨳ᆹޘّ
䇞ࡉ㻛䇔Ѫᱟሩ㾯ᯩᆹޘ⨶䇪ǃᆹޘ䈍䈝઼ᆹޘᇎ䐥Ⲵ䟽བྷĀေ㛱āˈ㾯ᯩⲴ᭼㿶
઼ᣥࡦ㻛ᆹޘ䇞仈Ⲵ⢩↺ᙗ઼䟽㾱ᙗᡰᕪॆDŽഐ↔ˈ䖳Ҿޘ⨳ਁኅّ䇞ˈޘ⨳ᆹ
ޘّ䇞Ⲵ᧘䘋ሶՊ༽ᵲ㘼ഠ䳮DŽ
ަйˈ䍏䶒䇔⸕Ⲵཆ䜘ഐо䜘ഐDŽ㖾ഭᚦॆབྷഭঊᔸо䳶ഒሩᣇˈ֯ц
⭼ተ࣯ǃഭ䱵〙ᒿ઼ൠ㕈Ṭተ൷ਁ⭏䟽བྷਈॆᒦۜ⭏ޘ⨳ᙗডᵪDŽᖃࡽˈ㖾ഭ↓൘
ᆖ⭼઼᭯⭼ޡ਼᧘ࣘሩॾ䙿ࡦ઼ᢃDŽ൘ᆖ⭼ˈᲞ᷇ᯟ亯བྷᆖᮉᦸ䱯Ֆgᕇ䟼ᗧ՟
Ṭ˄Aaron Friedberg˅䇔ѪˈĀ㾯ᯩ≁ѫഭᇦᗵ享Ӿṩᵜк䈳ᮤоѝഭⲴ㓿⍾ޣ
㌫ĂĂᆳԜᵜᓄ䈕䟷ਆཊ䗩ॿ䈳ᙗⲴ㹼ࣘˈ䘉ṧሩॾᣅ䍴઼ࠪਓ᧗ࡦⲴᴹ᭸ᙗ
Պབྷབྷᨀ儈DŽā 㓖㘠g㊣ቄᯟ⎧唈˄John Mearsheimer˅аⴤᮖ׳㖾ഭ亶ሬӪĀо
Ĺ
ቭਟ㜭ཊⲴѝഭ䛫ഭ㓴ᡀањᒣ㺑Ⲵ㚄ⴏāDŽԆ䇔ѪˈĀᴰ㓸Ⲵⴞḷᱟᔪ・ањ㊫
澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳澳
ķ “Macron Floats European ‘Community’ Open to Ukraine and UK,” Politico, May 9, 2022,
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-proposes-european-political-community-as-alternative-
to-eu-membership/?ref=american-purpose.
ĸ Michael Sheehan, “Military Security,” in Alan Collins, ed., Contemporary Security Studies
(Sixth Edition), Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2022, p. 204.
Ĺ Aaron L. Friedberg, Getting China Wrong, Cambridge: Polity Press, 2022, p. 191.
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