Page 70 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第3期

ᅞϧᆭުğ൞گԕؓॆߎ൞ሔෛࢲૐĤ

ྲօ⭼ᇊ४ฏѫሬᵳᡈҹਾৼᯩⲴഭᇦᵳ࣋˛ᵜ᮷㔬ਸ৲㘳Ҷॾቄީǃ㓖㘠g㊣
ቄᯟ⎧唈˄John J. Mearsheimer˅઼〖ӊ䶂ㅹޣҾഭᇦᇎ࣋⭼ᇊⲴ⹄ウᡀ᷌ˈ ᒦṩ
ķ
ᦞᵜ亩⹄ウ⎹৺ṸֻⲴ⢩↺ᙗ䘋㹼Ҷ؞↓DŽُ䢤ѻ༴൘Ҿሶ㓿⍾࣋оߋһ࣋֌Ѫ㺑
䟿ഭᇦᵳ࣋ⲴสᵜᤷḷDŽ㓿⍾࣋ѫ㾱⎹৺ഭ≁⭏ӗᙫ٬˄GNP˅ᮠ䟿üü䜘࠶Ṹֻ
䘹ᤙҶഭᇦ䍒᭯᭦ޕüüߋһ࣋ѫ㾱৲㘳ഭᇦⲴߋ䍩ᔰ᭟≤ᒣDŽ؞↓ѻ༴൘Ҿԕл

є⛩޵ᇩ˖俆ݸˈ⭡Ҿᵜ᮷൘ࡽᨀٷᇊѝᧂ䲔Ҷ৲оഭᇦՇཊⲴབྷ਼ⴏᡈҹˈഐ↔
ᵜ亩⹄ウӵޣ⌘४ฏѫሬᵳᡈҹਾৼᯩѻ䰤Ⲵᵳ࣋∄٬ˈ㘼ሩަ൘ൠ४ᡰᴹഭᇦѝ
Ⲵঐ∄нҸ㘳ሏDŽަ⅑ˈ㘳㲁ࡠᖡ૽ഭᇦሩ㠚䓛ᵳ࣋䇴ՠḷ߶Ⲵѫ㿲ᙗоཊݳᙗˈ
᭵ُ䢤Ҷᯟ㪲㣜g⊳ቄ⢩˄Stephen Walt˅Ⲵᵳ࣋䇴ՠḷ߶ˈሶഭᇦ䰤ߋ䱏㿴⁑઼

ᙫӪਓᮠ䟿є亩∄٬ҏ㓣ޕࡠ㔬ਸഭ࣋䇴ࡔѻѝDŽ
ĸ
ާփ᫽֌ᯩᔿྲл˖ㅜаˈሩൠ४ѫሬᵳᡈҹѻਾৼᯩⲴ㓿⍾࣋䟿䘋㹼ሩ∄ˈ
䇑㇇ࠪᡈ䍕ഭоᡈ㜌ഭѻ䰤 GNP Ⲵ∄٬˄䜘࠶Ṹֻ䟷⭘Ҷ䍒᭯᭦ޕ㜭࣋∄٬˅DŽ

ㅜҼˈሩৼᯩⲴߋһ࣋䟿䘋㹼ሩ∄ˈ䇑㇇ࠪᡈ䍕ഭоᡈ㜌ഭѻ䰤ߋ䍩ᔰ᭟Ⲵ∄٬DŽ
ㅜйˈሶৼᯩⲴߋ䱏㿴⁑䘋㹼∄䖳ˈ䇑㇇ࠪᡈ䍕ഭоᡈ㜌ഭѻ䰤ߋ䱏㿴⁑∄ֻਈࣘ
㤳തDŽㅜഋˈሩৼᯩӪਓᮠ䟿䘋㹼ሩ∄ˈ䘉аᤷḷ㜭ཏ৽᱐ࠪᡈ䍕ഭⲴ༽৏▌࣋DŽ
ㅜӄˈሶ㓿⍾࣋䟿ǃߋ䍩ᔰ᭟ǃߋ䱏㿴⁑ԕ৺Ӫਓᮠ䟿ᡰᗇࠪⲴഋњ∄٬䘋㹼≲઼ˈ

ᒦਆ㇇ᮠⲴᒣ൷٬DŽㅜޝˈṩᦞေᓹg䟼ᗧ˄William Reed˅Ⲵḷ߶ˈ൘ӗъ㔃ᶴ
⴨䘁Ⲵഭᇦ䰤üü䚯ݽࠪ⧠ߌъഭǃᐕъഭоؑ᚟ഭㅹӗъ㔃ᶴ᰾ᱮᆈ൘ԓᐞⲴഭ
ᇦѻ䰤∄䖳Ⲵ᰾ᱮ䈟ᐞüüྲ᷌ᡈ䍕ഭоᡈ㜌ഭѻ䰤൘਼а⇥ᰦ䰤䟼㔬ਸഭ࣋∄

٬ Rı0.8ˈࡉ䇔Ѫᡈ䍕ഭоᡈ㜌ഭѻ䰤ӽ❦༴Ҿ਼а࣋䟿ㅹ㓗˄power parity˅˗
Ĺ
৽ѻˈࡉ䇔Ѫᡈ䍕ഭоᡈ㜌ഭ༴Ҿн਼࣋䟿ㅹ㓗DŽ
δӂεሯᲤ⌋ᡎҿṾׁⲺ㘹ሕ
1871 ᒤˈᲞ⌅ᡈҹ֯⌅ഭཡ৫Ҷሩ⅗䱶䮯䗮 250 ᒤⲴ᭟䝽ൠսˈᗧ᜿ᘇㅜҼ

ķ ޣҾབྷഭ䰤Āᵳ࣋ሩ∄āⲴ㺑䟿ḷ߶ˈᵜ᮷৲㘳Ҷ㓖㘠g㊣ቄᯟ⎧唈˄John Mearsheimer˅
Ⲵ䇑㇇ᯩ⌅ˈণབྷഭᇎ࣋∄=˄M+G˅/2ˈަѝ M=Ḁབྷഭߋ䍩ᔰ᭟/ޘ䜘བྷഭߋ䍩ᔰ᭟˗G=Ḁབྷ
ഭഭ޵⭏ӗᙫ٬/ޘ䜘བྷഭഭ޵⭏ӗᙫ٬DŽ৲㿱 John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power
Politics, New York: W. W. Norton, 2001, p. 67DŽ〖ӊ䶂ᮉᦸҏṩᦞ㓿⍾઼ߋһ࣋䟿ᶕ⍻㇇ഭᇦⲴ㔬
ਸഭ࣋ˈণˈ俆ݸ䇑㇇⇿њ४ฏབྷഭഭ≁⭏ӗᙫ٬˄GNP˅઼ߋ䍩ᔰ᭟ᙫ઼ˈᒦᢺєњ઼࠶࡛ᇊ
Ѫ 100%ˈ❦ਾ䇑㇇⇿њབྷഭ GNP ᡆߋ䍩ᔰ᭟ᡰঐᙫᮠⲴⲮ࠶∄DŽ⭡↔ᗇࠪⲴєњⲮ࠶∄ѻ઼
Ⲵ㇇ᮠᒣ൷٬ˈণѪഭᇦ൘ൠ४Ⲵᵳ࣋ঐ∄DŽ৲㿱〖ӊ䶂˖lj䵨ᵳփ㌫оഭ䱵ߢケNJˈк⎧Ӫ≁
ࠪ⡸⽮ 2008 ᒤ⡸ˈㅜ 164-165 亥ˈ188-189 亥DŽ
ĸ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987, p. 275.
Ĺ William Reed, “A Unified Statistical Model of Conflict Onset and Escalation,” American
Journal of Political Science, Vol. 44, No. 1, 2000, p. 89.
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