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族群战争的爆发：一个广义理论

群通过话语（如宣布统治少数族群的计划）或实际行动（如实施合法的统治措施）
引发出来的。比如，在格鲁吉亚，奉行民族主义的总统兹维亚德·加姆萨胡尔季阿
（Zviad Gamsakhurdia）在宣布脱离苏联独立之后，立刻废除了少数族群阿伯卡茨

（Abkhaz）的文化和政治自治权。同样，南斯拉夫刚刚解体，克罗地亚的图季曼总
统便宣布对全国进行“克罗地亚化”。无论是格鲁吉亚还是克罗地亚，暴力行为的
①
爆发最初都是因为多数族群为增强统治而制造的话语或行动所促发的； 而之后少
数族群不得不予以抵抗。
其次，许多学者都指出，荣誉与威望、怨恨、不满和统治（domination）紧密
②
相连。 优势族群和劣势族群都可能怀有怨恨或不满的情绪：前者憎恨失去优势的
③
可能，而后者则希望（重新）获得平等、荣誉和光荣。
再次，卡普兰、考夫曼和彼得森都强调仇恨，无论是古老的还是现代的仇
④
恨。 先前的冲突事件激发仇恨，因此，仇恨应该是预测之后爆发冲突的最有

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Cornell University Press, 2001.
② Ted Robert Gurr, “A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New
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③ Joseph Rothschild, Ethnopolitics: A Conceptual Framework, New York: Columbia University
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④ Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey through History, New York: Random House,
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