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动的可能结果及其影响因素。
①
分析内战的域外情境的研究现已颇具规模。 具体到内战范围向境外扩展和内
战的外部干涉问题，现有研究的主要关注是其如何导致政府间摩擦的发生或升级。

②
不少经验数据分析都发现，反政府武装的境外散逸同国际冲突之间存在强关联。
特别是当境外散逸直接受到别国政府的资助时，内部冲突的当事国与干涉国之间使
③
用武力的风险会显著提升。 关于武装分子向境外散逸如何导致国家间冲突升级，
④
常见的机制解释框架有以下几类：
第一，认为二者之间的关联是族群政治（ethnic politics）和族群间冲突向国境
线外的自动延伸。如果一国的国内冲突就性质而言是源于不同族群在认同方面的对
立，那么参与内战的政府军和反政府武装很可能就是对立族群各自的政治代言人。

在二战后取得独立的发展中国家里，有相当一部分国家的疆域范围并非是基于规范

① Lars-Erik Cederman, et al., “Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups
on Civil Wars,” World Politics, Vol. 6, No. 3, 2009, pp. 403-437; Kenneth Schultz, “The Enforcement
Problem in Coercive Bargaining: Interstate Conflict over Rebel Support in Civil Wars,” International
Organization, Vol. 64, No. 2, 2010, pp. 281-312; Kyle Beardsley, “Peacekeeping and the Contagion of
Armed Conflict,” The Journal of Politics, Vol. 73, No. 4, 2011, pp. 1051-1064; Jacob Kathman, “Civil
War Diffusion and Regional Motivations for Intervention,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 55, No. 6,
2011, pp. 847-876; Vincenzo Bove, et al., “‘Oil above Water’: Economic Interdependence and
Third-party Intervention,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 60, No. 7, 2015, pp. 1251-1277.
② Peter Trumbore, “Victims or Aggressors? Ethno-Political Rebellion and Use of Force in
Militarized Interstate Disputes,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 47, No. 2, 2003, pp. 183-201;
Kristian Gleditsch, “Transnational Dimensions of Civil War,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 44, No. 3,
2007, pp. 293-309; Kristian Gleditsch, et al., “Fighting at Home, Fighting Abroad: How Civil Wars
Lead to International Disputes,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 52, No. 4, 2008, pp. 479-506;
Idean Salehyan, “No Shelter Here: Rebel Sanctuaries and International Conflict,” The Journal of
Politics, Vol. 70, No. 1, 2008, pp. 54-66; Zeev Maoz and Belgin San-Akca, “Rivalry and State Support
of Non-State Armed Groups (NAGs), 1946-2011,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 4,
2012, pp. 720-734.
③ Stephen Saideman, The Ties that Divide: Ethnic Politics, Foreign Policy, and International
Conflict, New York: Columbia University Press, 2001, pp. 1-35; Kenneth Schultz, “The Enforcement
Problem in Coercive Bargaining: Interstate Conflict over Rebel Support in Civil Wars,” International
Organization, Vol. 64, No. 2, 2010, pp. 281-312.
④ 相关文献梳理可参考 Dylan Balch-Lindsay and Andrew Enterline, “Killing Time: The World
Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820-1992,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 4, 2000, pp.
615-642; Peter Trumbore, “Victims or Aggressors? Ethno-Political Rebellion and Use of Force in
Militarized Interstate Disputes,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 47, No. 2, 2003, pp. 183-201;
Kristian Gleditsch, et al., “Fighting at Home, Fighting Abroad: How Civil Wars Lead to International
Disputes,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 52, No. 4, 2008, pp. 479-506。
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