Page 116 - 《国际安全研究》2023年第1期

1980 2015

（二）主自变量
本文的自变量是联合国维和行动（UNPKO_PF），数据来源是弗吉尼娅·福
特纳（Virginia Page Fortna）经典的联合国维和数据，始于 1948 年，更新到 2015

年。 这是一个虚拟变量，0 表示没有发生维和，1 表示维和发生或在进行中。每
①
个观察表示加入联合国某项维和行动的不同国家向目标国派遣了一定数量的维和
人员，大致包括军事观察员、文职警察和（武装）警察、军队等几种类型。

（三）控制变量
马格雷特·利瓦伊（Magaret Levi）把国家建构的影响因素划分为 3 类：国家
相对于社会的议价能力、交易成本以及政治精英对未来的预期所产生的贴现率。 ②
我们参照近年来的相关研究， 设置了 3 组 18 个控制变量以及 3 个地区/文化变量，
③
既确认了被反复认定的国家建构影响变量，又最大限度地避免了“遗漏变量偏差”。
出于简化写作的目的，我们绘制了表 1，报告了所有变量的名称、变量种类、测量
方式、数据年份、理论期待和数据来源。 ④

① Virginia Page Fortna, Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents’ Choices after Civil
War, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008.
② Magaret Levi, Of Rule and Revenue, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1989, pp.
17-40.
③ Cameron Thies, “The Political Economy of State Building in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Journal of
Politics, Vol. 69, No. 3, 2007, pp. 723-725; Jefferey Pickering and Emizet Kisangani, “Foreign Military
Intervention and Post-Colonial State-Building: An Actor-Centric Analysis,” Conflict Management and
Peace Science, Vol. 31, No. 3, 2014, p. 254.
④ 各指标数据来源如下：William Thompson et al., Analyzing Strategic Rivalries in World
Politics: Types of Rivalry, Regional Variation, and Escalation/De-escalation, Singapore: Springer, 2022,
pp. 34-46; Nils Gleditsch et al., “Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset,” Journal of Peace
Research, Vol. 39, No. 5, 2002, pp. 615-637; Michael Coppedge et al., “V-Dem [Country-Year/
Country-Date] Dataset V .9,” Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, 2019, https://doi.org/10.23696/
vdemcy19; Cesi Cruz et al., “Database of Political Institutions 2017 (DPI2017),” Inter-American
Development Bank, Numbers for Development, 2018, https://mydata.iadb.org/Reform-Modernization-
of-the-State; Correlates of War Project, “State System Membership List, v2016,” Online, https://
correlatesofwar.org; Julian Wucherpfennig et al., “Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil War,”
World Politics, Vol. 64, No. 1, 2012, pp. 79-115; World Bank, World Development Indicators,
Washington, DC: World Bank Press, 2021; Ali Fisunoglu et al., “Relative Political Capacity Dataset
(V2.4),” 2020, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NRR7MB, Harvard Dataverse; Andrada Olteanu,
“Country Mapping - ISO, Continent, Region,” https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/andradaolteanu/
country-mapping-iso-continent-region。

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