Page 68 - 《国际安全研究》2021年第1期

澜湄水资源安全与合作：流域发展导向的分析视角

①
造认知。 2006 年，马克·泽图恩（Mark Zeitoun）和杰荣·华纳（Jeroen Warner）
提出系统的“水霸权”理论分析框架，认为流域霸权国对水资源控制战略的选
②
择决定了水资源冲突或合作的程度。 与此同时，一些学者努力超越现实主义
静态的权力理论。迈克尔·舒尔茨（Michael Schulz）、帕特里克·麦夸尔（Patrick
MacQuarrie）和安东尼·特顿（Anthony Turton）等人发展了“水政治复合体”
理论，认为跨境水资源问题不是单纯的安全问题，它与政治之间有着密切关系，

流域国家既因同处一个生态系统内而相互依赖，又对水权的行使相互制约，还
常将水资源问题与其他问题相关联，致使冲突、竞争和合作关系共存。
③
受“水政治复合体”理论发展的影响，国外学者不再仅仅关注权力，而是将跨
境水资源问题置于流域国家内部、流域国家之间、流域地区甚至全球的复杂政治经

济和社会背景下分析。这种变化在澜湄水资源问题上表现得尤为明显。20 世纪 90
年代到 21 世纪初，国外学者从硬实力视角出发，认为中国与下游国家的权力不对
称，将中国描绘成一个在国际河流合作问题上态度冷漠，“试图将水作为政治砝码”

④
的“上游霸权国”“上游超级力量”“好斗者”和“地区水安全威胁者”。 2010 年

① Marwa Daoudy, “Turkey and the Region: Testing the Links between Power Asymmetry and
Hydro-Hegemony,” Presentation given at First Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony, May 21-22, 2005,
King’s College London, London, UK, https://www.soas.ac.uk/water/publications/papers/file38412.pdf;
Anthony Turton, “Hydro-Hegemony in the Context of the South African Cold War Experience,”
Presentation given at First Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony, May 21-22, 2005, King’s College London,
UK, https://lwrg.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/turton-hydro-hegemony-presentation.pdf; Steven Lukes,
Power: A Radical View, Hampshire, UK: Palgrave MacMillan, 2005.
② Mark Zeitoun and Jeroen Warner, “Hydro-hegemony - A Framework for Analysis of Trans-
boundary Water Conflict,” Water Policy, Vol. 8, No. 5, 2006, pp. 435-460.
③ Michael Schulz, “Turkey, Syria and Iraq: A Hydropolitical Security Complex,” in Leif Ohlsson,
ed., Hydropolitics: Conflicts over Water as a Development Constraint, London: Zed Books, 1995, pp.
91-122; Patrick MacQuarrie, Water Security in the Middle East: Growing Conflict over Development in
the Euphrate-Tigris Basin, Dublin: Trinity College, 2004, p. 11; Anthony Turton, “An Introduction to
the Hydropolitical Dynamics of the Orange River Basin,” in Mikiyasu Nakayama, ed., International
Waters in Southern Africa, Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2003, pp. 136-163.
④ Richard Cronin, “Mekong Dams and the Perils of Peace,” Survival, Vol. 51, No. 6, 2009, pp.
147-160; Timo Menniken, “China’s Performance in International Resource Politics: Lessons from the
Mekong,” Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2007, pp. 97-120; James Nickum, “The
Upstream Superpower: China’s International River,” in Olli Varis, Cecilia Tortajada and Asit Biswas,
eds., Management of Transboundary Rivers and Lake, Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2008,
pp. 227-244; Evelyn Goh, “China in the Mekong River Basin: The Regional Security Implications of
Resource Development on the Lancang Jiang,” RSIS, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore,
July 2004, https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/rsis-pubs/WP69.pdf.
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