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公共物品供给与国内冲突的复发

源于国家建设、经济增长和社会整合。在对内战发生的研究中，怨恨经常被操作
①
为文化上的族性（ethnicity）。 不少经验研究表明，族性冲突比意识形态冲突复
②
发的风险更高。
经济增长被视为在后冲突社会实现持久和平最主要的保障。经济增长对于和
平很重要，因为强健的经济有助于“削弱敌意、创造工作机会、扩展税基、支持
③
军队，并给士兵发饷”。 经济增长是许多公共物品供给的源泉。其他一些对社
会–经济复苏的刺激因素实际上是社会–经济物品供给，比如反贫困政策、重建
④
性别关系、恢复传统社会纽带和社会再协调。 仪式和象征对于解决复杂和深层
次的问题发挥着巨大的作用，是对传统冲突解决手段的补充。它们有助于改变人
⑤
们的世界观、社会认同和人际关系，进而促进后冲突社会的和平。
此外，虽然学者们对内战复发的研究较少关注民众，但是对于冲突发生的许
多解释间接地强调了怨恨或者反叛者的动机。比如，导致政治进步或民主化的制
度变迁会带来对不同利益的兼容，从而降低一些叛军士兵的政治怨恨。此外，平

民决心参与反叛被假定为是由于反政府组织承诺满足他们的经济–社会和政治需

① Barbara Walter, “Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and
Commitments to Peace,” International Security, Vol. 24, No. 1 (Summer 1999), p. 147.
② 例如 Tanja Ellingsen, “Colorful Community or Ethnic Witches’ Brew? Multiethnicity and
Domestic Conflict during and after the Cold War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No. 2
(April 1999), pp. 228-249。
③ Susan Woodward, “Economic Priorities for Successful Peace Implementation,” in Stephen
Stedman, ed., Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements, Boulder, CO: Lynne
Rienner Publishers, 2002, pp. 183-214; J. M. Quinn, David Mason and Mehmet Gurses, “Sustaining
the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence,” International Interactions, Vol. 33, No. 2 (January
2002), pp. 167-193; Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and Måns Söderbom, “Post-Conflict Risks,” Journal
of Peace Research, Vol. 45, No. 4 (June 2008), pp. 461-478; Nicholas Sambanis, “Short- and Long-
Term Effects of UN Peace Operations,” World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 22, No. 1, 2008, pp. 9-32.
④ John Lederach, Building Peace: Sustainable Reconciliation in Divided Societies, Washington,
D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1997; Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, “On the Incidence
of Civil War in Africa,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 1 (February 2002), pp. 13-28;
John Prendergast and Emily Plumb, “Building Local Capacity: From Implementation to
Peacebuilding,” in Stephen Stedman, ed., Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements,
Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2002, pp. 327-352; Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, “Aid,
Policy and Growth in Post-Conflict Societies,” working paper, 2002, pp. 1-41,
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~ball0144/research.htm; William Long and Peter Brecke, War and Reconciliation:
Reason and Emotion in Conflict Resolution, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003.
⑤ Lisa Schirch, Ritual and Symbol in Peacebuilding, Bloomfield, CT: Kumarian Press, Inc., 2005.
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